Monday June 16 2008
Note from JWR:

Congrats to Matthew B., the high bidder in the recent SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. Today we begin a new auction. This one is for two cases (12 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans donated by Ready Made Resources, a course certificate for a four-day Bushcraft & Survival Course valued at $550, 25 pounds of green (unroasted) Colombian Supremo coffee courtesy of www.cmebrew.com, and a set of 1,600 U.S. Military Manuals, Government Manuals, and Civil Defense Manuals, Firearm Manuals on two CD-ROM disks. The opening bid is just $50. Details on this new auction will be posted soon.


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Letter Re: Recommendations on Body Armor

Mr. Rawles:
I've seen your advice on guns and commo gear, but what do you recommend for bulletproof vests? Should I have one for concealment, and a separate [heavier] one for a stand-up fight in the worst case? Or is there a compromise thickness? Also, what do the [NIJ vest rating] "Levels" stand for, exactly? Thank Ye Much, - Arnie V.
JWR Replies: I forwarded your questions to Nick at BullterProofME.com, since his knowledge of body armor dwarfs my own. Here is his response:

Dear Arnie:
Your questions are very well put. The most basic question of Body Armor is - do I need to stop rifle fire or pistol fire? It's all a tradeoff of weight and concealability versus protection.

Soft concealable vests (e.g., Kevlar) will NOT stop rifle fire, but are rated Level II-A or Level II for standard handgun threats, or Level III-A for more exotic pistol threats such as 9mm sub-machine-gun or .44 Magnum. Weight is only 3 to 6 lbs. (1.4 to 2.7 kg.) generally.

Rigid Rifle Plates are rated Level III to stop lead core .308 Full Metal Jacket (NATO 7.62 x 51mm), or Level IV to stop steel core .30-06 Armor-Piercing (AP). Rifle Plates, are generally 10" by 12" (25 by 30 cm.) and will add 7 to 18 lbs. to a vest, depending on the type chosen, as you need a pair for Front and Back protection, .

For technical details on the NIJ ratings, see the ballistic ratings chart.

Tactical Body Armor, e.g., the Interceptor vest we are running a special on is roughly twice the weight of a concealable, torso protection vest at 10 lbs. (4.5 kg.), but twice the coverage area with extended torso protection, plus neck and groin protection. But then you add the weight of Rifle Plates!

Here's a quick and dirty guide as to how armor can be configured - click the links for example photos:

1. Concealable Vest for pistol protection on the torso e.g., 4 lbs. (1.8 kg.)

2. Concealable vest with Rifle Plate Pockets and Level IV Rifle Plates Front & Back, and pistol protection all around, e.g., ~16.5 lb. (7.5 kg.) - this would be "concealable under a jacket"

3. Level IV Stand-Alone Rifle Plates in a Rifle Plates Carrier for rifle protection only on the Front & Back, ~15 lbs. (6.8 kg.) - this would be "concealable under a jacket". Level III Ultra-light Polyethylene plates would be just 7 lbs. (3.2 kg.)

4. Overt Tactical Body Armor for pistol and sub-machine-gun protection, ~10 lbs. (4.5 kg.) (without Rifle Plates)
- "concealable under a jacket" if neck and Groin Protection taken off.

5. Overt Tactical Body Armor with Level IV Ceramic Rifle Plates, e.g., 22.5 lbs. (10.2 kg.) (You can also add side Rifle Plates)

For running around town to protect against street crime, a concealable vest makes the most sense as handguns are the most common threat. Just as important, being concealable, light, and easy to wear, it will be worn more often. As we say - the best vest for you is the one you actually have on when being shot at! (As opposed to a heavier vest left at home in the closet.) We spend a lot of time talking folks out of concealable Level III-A vests for more concealable Level II vests that are easier to hide under light clothing.

For continuous use in a low threat environment, it might even make sense to forgo the vest and use a ballistic insert to make a Ballistic Backpack or Briefcase. A briefcase or backpack will usually be around, rather than a vest that won't always be worn because of heat buildup, or clothing choices.

For high threat situations, e.g., glass breaking at 3 o'-clock in the morning, or standing guard in a Hurricane Katrina style disaster, maximum protection in both coverage area and protection level makes the most sense. Hence Tactical Body Armor with Rifle Plates, and maybe even Side Rifle Plates. The extended coverage and rifle protection gives you a much "warmer and fuzzier" feeling when you are in a real "two-way range" situation!

So, if you can afford it, both a concealable torso vest, and an extended coverage Tactical vest with Rifle Plates is the optimal solution. Just as pistols and rifles serve different purposes with different capabilities - it's always a tradeoff between convenience and weight vs. protection.

If your budget dictates one or the other, go with what fits your circumstances most often. Discreet, concealed wear all day in low threat areas, or overt Tactical armor for shorter duration, high risk situations.

If you need to split the difference, you might want to consider a modular Rifle Plates Carrier to upgrade your concealable vest with rifle protection. Going the other way, you can strip down an Interceptor vest, removing the neck and groin components for a torso vest concealable under a light jacket. Yours truly - Nick, Manager, BulletProofME.com

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Letter Re: Request for Investing Advice

Mr. Rawles:
After reading "Patriots" last year, much like Mr. H., I was decidedly ready to act, but largely unprepared logistically. It can be overwhelming and the feeling that “I had a long way to go” was ever present (it still is and I suspect always will be as my education never ends). I'd just like to remind the author to not worry, you’ll get the stuff; you’ve already taken the first step and done something. But preparedness is more than material, the mindset is most important. Start to live right, be frugal, be healthy. Don’t be reliant on outside institutions. Grind that grain, learn to eat and use whole foods. You’ll not only be saving money in this inflationary environment as you prepare, you’ll also enjoy health benefits and be doing your family service by breaking them out of the consumerist mentality that inundates us all and welcoming them into a life of self sufficiency. Most importantly by being a good, guiding father and husband.

Once you get your mind right and start thinking, you’ll learn to set priorities and focus on certain aspects of preparedness individually. Over time you will accumulate materials and skills necessary to not only survive in TEOTWAWKI, but to thrive in everyday life.

Last year I submitted an article called What if The Schumer Doesn't Hit The Fan? - Reasons to Prepare Anyway. I stand by my writing but have learned a lot since and think we are ever closer to rough times.

In less than one year, I’ve accumulated most importantly a wealth of knowledge, but also several months worth of grain and dried food for my family, a grain mill of course, defense items, several books, communication equipment, a generator, a modest gasoline supply, first aid supplies, a pocket water filter and several other items. We also now raise backyard chickens, expanded our garden, increased savings (the most difficult part by far), and I am finally working on starting a small dog training business.

Since deciding to really prepare, it’s amazing how far I’ve come, but I was also amazed at how receptive my wife and kids have been and how much we were either already doing or mentally prepared to do which mesh well with a preparedness lifestyle. Things like home schooling, camping, eliminating debt, learning to do without. I still have a long way to go but I am proud of our accomplishments and enjoying the lifestyle change.

In closing, I'd like to say it's awesome how many people's lives you are changing. Thank you, Mr. Rawles for all you do. - MB

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Odds 'n Sods:

Larry in Cincinnati spotted this sobering Banking Times article: Central bank body warns of Great Depression. Gee, have they been reading SurvivalBlog?

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Jack B. flagged this from Scotland: Petrol supplies dwindling as tanker drivers' strike fuels panic buying

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If you are wealthy and want to own the ultimate "Get Out of Dodge" vehicle, I noticed that there is an U.S. Army/ARVN configuration Cadillac Gage V-100 Commando wheeled armored personnel carrier listed for sale at Dave Uhrig's site. It make the up-armored Ferret Mark 4 that I once owned look wimpy, by comparison. (My Ferret only had seats for two, and a single M1919A4 belt-fed .30 caliber in the turret.)

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Five Ways to Survive Any Disaster--Survival researcher Amanda Ripley explains how to get through the next earthquake/hurricane/plane crash/terrorist attack. A good article, from Mother Jones magazine of all places! This illustrates that survivalism increasingly knows no politics. ( A hat tip to "OSOM", for the link.)

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Government is good at one thing: It knows how to break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, 'See, if it weren't for the government, you wouldn't be able to walk.'" - Harry Browne, April 11, 2002

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Sunday June 15 2008
Note from JWR:

The SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tonight (Sunday, June 15th), at midnight, eastern time. The high bid is now at $1,110. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book "Boston's Gun Bible." The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. Place your bid soon! Today, with permission, we present a guest article by Mike Morgan:

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Florida at the Precipice of Depression, by Mike Morgan, J.D., CRS, GRI

I was going to call this "Banks March Us Into Depression," or maybe more fitting is . . . "Complete Collapse of US Banking System." Folks, that is what we are looking at. I don't see any way around it. What we're seeing here in Florida, is your crystal ball. And what happens here, is coming to a town near you . . . soon.

This past week I didn't write anything, because what I am seeing unravel is disturbing to the point I had to question what I was seeing and hearing. So I decided to take as much time as I needed to digest it all, and then put something together for you. So here goes . . .

I could prepare volumes of spread sheets with Bernankesque numbers. I could talk about commodity prices and oil and Third World politics and a dozen other metrics that all lead to the same conclusion. But let me give you a ground zero look. That's what I do best. I will leave the manipulation of the numbers to the folks on Wall Street that do it best. The same folks that have created the precipice they will soon push us off.

I spend a great deal of time dealing with Asset Managers hired by banks stuck with REOs. So as not to re-hash the events leading to the housing crisis, I will not discuss the free-money policies of the past, and I will not discuss the absolute lack of accountability in making the bad loans of the past. Let's just deal with how the banks are attempting to recover.

Unfortunately, banks are not making a realistic effort to address the crisis. That may be because they cannot. As the banks and builders have announced write down after write down, my mantra has been . . . and continues to be: not enough, not enough, not enough. I still believe that. The builders and the banks have underestimated the magnitude of the problem, and they continue to do so. Analysts continue to look at the rear-view mirror and attempt to manipulate numbers based misguided historical assumptions. The NAR and the economists continue to twist the numbers, lie and then slip in prior-month adjustments without actually comparing apples to apples. But that is another article. The bankers and the fat cats on Wall Street sit back and watch the carnival, collecting fees from everyone they can snooker.

I have recently started turning away REO properties from banks and asset managers, even though hundreds of thousands of real estate agents nationwide are lined up waiting for these listings. I made the decision because we have reached a point where these listings are costing us money, and the asset managers are squeezing harder and harder . . . because they can. There are great asset managers and there are incompetent ones. The majority fall into the incompetent bucket, but we eliminate them quickly. The banks, on the other hand, continue to throw away money with the bucket of incompetent managers. It seems like the mortgage brokers that pushed funny money for the last six years are now starting asset management companies. We still work with a number of asset managers and banks directly, but the list of asset managers is growing smaller as properties fail to sell. When that happens, properties are bundled up and sold in bulk or at auction. This puts further downward pressure on markets because of lower prices and the inventory was not absorbed . . . it just changed hands.

Banks cannot afford to take 50-75% hits on mortgages, and that is exactly what is happening. The precipice is here, and we are on it. Recent reports about home sales rebounding are insignificant, because no one is accurately describing the growing inventory build-up. Banks simply don't have the margins to deal with this crisis. And for that reason, we will see massive bank failures and this will snowball into a complete economic meltdown. If you have an argument against this scenario, I'd love to debate you on a live conference call. We deal with the banks. We know what is going on before the numbers show up at the Fed or any analysts desks. We deal with the public, so we hear the desperation at all levels. I listen to grown men cry about how to explain to their families that they are losing everything. I listen to people that I fear are on the verge of suicide. I read about people committing crimes simply to put food on the table. Spend a week with me, and you'll understand why there is no feasible way to avoid a Depression.

The banks will fail, just as they failed in 1929 . . . but worse because this time some of this leverage is as high as 40:1. Insurance? Where is that going to come from? There is no insurance that can cover the cost of the coming bank failure, unless we just print more money. We are two generations removed from 1929. I am talking about Biblical 40 year generations. And when you look at who we were in 1929 and who we are now, you'll realize just how ugly it is going to be. In 1929 there was a stronger base of family values. There was a work ethic that we don't see today. The generation from 1929 - 1969 grew up with a totally different set of values than the generation from 1969 - 2009. The first generation worked their way out of the Depression. Today's generation doesn't understand work. We only understand creative financing and how to live off the next generation. And sadly, that is where we are today. We are at the precipice, and we are going to push our children over the edge because we lived so far above our means and ignored all of the warning signs. We lived just like the Romans in their final days.

Harsh? Like I said, spend one week with me, and you will go home with a new outlook about life, people and the crisis that is unfolding. You will go home with a sick feeling in the pit of your stomach. Guaranteed.

Just Florida? No, but Florida is your crystal ball.

The next generation? I would like to think we will eventually build ourselves out of this Depression with nuclear plants, solar and wind farms, seawater desalinization plants new roads and bridges and state of the art cars and trucks. Unfortunately, who is going to get their hands dirty? For those that study history, how would we manage a WPA with today's generation? It will be a much tougher recovery, because we have lost the fundamentals that made us the greatest country in the world.

Conference Call: I am going to hold a conference call on June 26th. If you would like to join the call, please e-mail me.

Note: If interested in additional information, visit my institutional web site at www.Morgan-Florida.org or my institutional blog or our consumer web site. If you would like to be added to our distribution list, please e-mail me. Since I originally wrote this piece, I have received hundreds of e-mails and comments. Unfortunately, I can't possibly respond to all of them. If you would like to receive my articles, I can add you to my Quick Notes distribution list. Just e-mail me. You can also read prior articles at my web site and on the left hand side you can sort through prior posts by title and date. Thank You all for the nice comments and e-mails. I encourage everyone to email this piece to your Congressman and Senators. The links for e-mailing them are here: House and Senate.

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Letter Re: E85 Ethanol Compatible Vehicles

Sir;
I saw 85% Ethanol (E85) for the first time around me at a gas station for $3.49. Plus or minus the lost gas mileage, I will still be paying the same per mile. If I should choose to equip my vehicles with something like FlexTek, which is an electronic module that changes how long the fuel injectors fire, do you think it would be worth it? In other words, do you think ethanol will go up or down compared to gasoline? If the gap continues to separate to more than 50 cents difference, E85 becomes a real option, do you think this is possible?

You are about the only person I can think of with a broad enough spectrum of knowledge to even make an educated guess. Thanks, Andrew D.

JWR Replies: In the new fuel price paradigm, having at least one E85-compatible vehicle is certainly wise. These "Flex Fuel" Vehicles (FFVs) have fuel tanks and fuel lines designed to handle alcohol as well as ignition systems that automatically sense the flash point of the fuel, and compensate accordingly. (Hence, they can run on unleaded gasoline, E85, or any mixture of the two.) I have been recommending buying E85-compatible vehicles in SurvivalBlog since September of 2005. Rather than doing a conversion, which will void most manufacturer's engine warranties and can even require a gas tank replacement for older vehicles, I generally recommend simply waiting until the next time you replace a vehicle. Finding a FFV is getting easier with each passing year, since they are getting produced in greater numbers by nearly all of the major car and truck makers. The best way to find one is to do a used vehicle search at Edmunds.com, and include the phrase "Flex Fuel" or "FFV".

It is difficult to predict what will happen with fuel prices. Even given general trends, taxation is a "wild card" that is impossible to predict. But it is just plain common sense to buy the most flexible vehicles and and generators available, especially when getting that flexibility doesn't cost much more than buying standard single-fuel engines.

If the price of regular gas rises above $4.50 per gallon (and it likely will), I suspect that E85 ethanol will remain under $3.60 per gallon in the Midwest, making it quite cost effective. (Although E85 has a 100 to 105 octane rating, a FFV burning E85 gets 28% fewer miles per gallon than when burning unleaded gasoline.)

As always, regardless of the make and model you choose, I am not in favor of buying factory new cars and trucks. There are huge cost savings in buying a vehicle with 20,000 to 35,000 miles on the odometer.

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Letter Re: For Want of Battery

Hello Jim,
To follow up on your recent post, I just wanted to let readers of the blog know that Northern Tool & Equipment is having a sale on their solar panels right now. All-Battery.com is also having a major sale on battery chargers and some other items as well. These can be significant savings for anyone needing these items. - Jeff in Ohio

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Odds 'n Sods:

RBS sent us the link to an editorial posted at Numismaster: U.S. May Be on Brink of Financial Crisis

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There are just two weeks left in BulletProofME.com's special sale on Interceptor Body Armor and Kevlar helmets, just for SurvivalBlog readers. They only rarely offer prices this low, so don't miss out!

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Mary R. mentioned this news story from New Zealand: Four weeks until power cuts

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"If Americans feel they are being pick-pocketed by inflation, they should take a look overseas" writes Richard Benson in With Inflation There's No Free Lunch. His chart comparing this past year's inflation rate for 24 nations is informative. (A hat tip to Kevin A. for the link.)

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"The plans of the diligent surely lead to plenty, but those of everyone who is hasty surely to poverty." - Proverbs 21:5, NKJV

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Saturday June 14 2008
Note from JWR:

The SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction ends tomorrow (Sunday, June 15th.) The high bid is now at $920. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book "Boston's Gun Bible." The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. Place your bid soon!

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Two Letters Re: Some Observations on Recent Flooding in the US Midwest

James,
I got this from a friend in Indiana:
All is well at our house but the town is suffering. Here are a few comments for your edification.
- Small rivers come up fast with 10 inches of rainfall. Unknown to me, but if I had delayed another 30 minutes in going home, I would not have been with my family where I was needed.
- This was the first time other than snow events when I could not leave town. All roads underwater, including interstates and state highways.
- My Chevy 4WD pickup will go through deeper water than most cars. Don't purchase any used cars from Indiana for awhile.
- The portable generator worked great. With smart load management I could essentially run the entire house including frig, freezer, microwave, geothermal air conditioning, and lights. Total power off time was 12 hours with less that 6 hours of generator run time. Now I want to have more fuel on hand. A quieter generator would have been a plus.
- When the power went off and it was expected to be off for the duration of this emergency, we all immediately took showers to use the available hot water. Sometime later the city water pressure went way down but not completely off. Toilets remained operational.
- The hospital was flooded and will be closed for an indeterminate length of time. All patients were evacuated. Plan your medical emergencies accordingly.
- I'm in the market for a battery powered AM/FM radio with headphone jack so I can listen to local news without disturbing others during the night. Local radio seems to be the best source of information. Cable went off line. The weather band radio was useful as they routinely give river level conditions.
- The middle school and later the high school were opened for those seeking shelter. I'd rather sleep in the woods.
- My brother lives 30 miles away but works here. He was stranded and spent the night with us. He appreciated the hot shower, clean bed, dinner, etc. He's now thinking that a bug out kit would be a good thing. He would have slept in his truck rather than go to the shelter. Drinking water would have been his first issue.
- Cell phone communications stayed up but were overloaded. Too many folks use them for non-essential communications. Same for 911 calls. I don't have a good work around but will give this some thought.
- There was no car or pedestrian traffic in our subdivision during the night. I anticipate this would change if the situation had stretched for several days. With no street lights or city ambient lighting, night vision [equipment] would have been helpful.
- The headlamp on a headband really makes the odd jobs in the dark much easier to manage. LED flashlights are a good thing. Surefire [flashlight]s were kept in reserve.
The town is in clean up mode now. Thanks and Best Wishes, - Bill N.

Mr. Rawles

Hello from a long time reader. Thanks for all the info. I thought I could give everyone a heads up on what is happening in the new Wisconsin wetlands. First off it is amazing how foolish people act when a disaster strikes. There a literally hundreds of people walking around in backed up sewer water which is waist deep. Without even shoes? People think that if they drive their sports car fast enough through the water they can make it. People who live within sight of a river are on television saying how shocked they are. Didn't it ever occur to anyone that if you live within 20 feet of a body of water it might rise someday?

My house is fine, on a hill in the higher part of town. Our Bug Out Location (B.O.L.) is fine too, just called and got the"okay" word. It is nice to know which ways to take out of town in the event of a flood for next time. Make a note of this it might come in handy. People are helping each other sand bag their homes and businesses. I wonder how long people will work together if food were to not be trucked in. It was funny to watch my neighbors load groceries into their house in the pouring rain. Preps come in handy on a rainy day, literally.

There has been lots of damage around all of Wisconsin, I had to take an alternate route to work as they shutdown a few of the lower roads. Seeing the damage first hand is sad and at the same time I think is good for people because it makes them realize how quickly everything can be lost. Coming home from my in-laws' house, I had a man hole cover blow off two feet from my truck, due to the water pressure. The next day there was an article in the local paper on how one woman's SUV was totaled because she wasn't so lucky.

Now I'm just waiting wondering if I will have a job, if the d**n on Phantom Lake goes, so does the building that I work at. - Bill C. in Wisconsin

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From David in Israel Re: Some Preparedness Implications of Rapidly Escalating Fuel Prices

James
We are all seeing the rise in fuel prices affecting food prices. I would like the readers to do a acres of farm to miles traveled evaluation of their plans when planning for a world with sparse petro-fuels.
The current option is to ignore the prices and continue to fuel large SUVs and pickup trucks even for for "pick me up milk" runs.
A fuel efficient car or motorcycle makes more sense depending on the number of passengers travelling.

Bio-diesel or ethanol from your field rarely makes sense for anything other than a few very important drives per year or towing a harvester, the effort to farm these crops are better fed to work animals and
human workers. Although if you really only make these few drives it might even out considering you make one or two batches of fuel and garage the truck the rest of the year, no daily feeding of a huge hungry beast.

Horses and oxen are very useful on a large post-petroleum farm, replacing the tractor and truck, but you need to feed that large living muscle mass even in the dead of winter when there is little
important(to your survival bottom line) travel or work. It is important to remember that even into the steam age before bicycles and automobiles reduced the number of work animals around half of the US farm output went into the mouths of work and transportation animals. Even if you are able to graze in the fair months of the year most Americans in the northern
states need to have plans to safely mow and store large amounts of hay and grains to feed your livestock. A donkey or mule is smaller and must pull a smaller plow or load but in the off months they are
a smaller idle eater and need less exercise to stay healthy and content .

The last stop in labor is the human body, around the world many poorer peoples use themselves as farming machines. You will see a man pulling a plow with his wife or child steering. A bicycle converts muscle energy many times over saving calories and time for longer range travel, as long as the bicycle can be maintained. The trick with human energy is we don't slaughter ourselves if times get tight, and we can still do useful work even in winter when most work animals are idle eaters. This is why the farm family has always rejoiced in another new baby, not only was it filling the command to be fruitful and multiply but it was another helping hand.(Have you ever noticed that the more religious families even in urban areas often have many children?)

On the plus calorie side chickens, goats, sheep and larger free grazed food animals add calories to your bottom line by metabolizing insects, kitchen scraps, and cellulose like grass into food that humans can easily consume. We need not say that the beast deal is gathered fruits, honey, netted fish, and hunted or tapped nutrition which require tiny amounts of exertion compared to the calories obtained.
Shalom, - David in Israel

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Odds 'n Sods:

Eric sent us this one: Man Retrofits Freezer to Make an Ultra-Efficient Fridge

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Courtesy of Bob from Minnesota: BIO5 Researcher Identifies Cities at Risk for Bioterrorism. Generally, this is yet another piece of confirmation for my preferences in the SurvivalBlog Recommended Retreat Areas page.

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Frank S. flagged this: Too Much Money: Inflation Goes Global

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Carl H. found this MakerFaire video on making crystal iodine from potassium iodide. This, BTW, ties in to the DEA restrictions on Polar Pure crystals--previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

I remember hearing:

How high's the water, mama?
Two feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Two feet high and risin'

We can make it to the road in a homemade boat
That's the only thing we got left that'll float
It's already over all the wheat and the oats,
Two feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Three feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Three feet high and risin'

Well, the hives are gone,
I've lost my bees
The chickens are sleepin'
In the willow trees
Cow's in water up past her knees,
Three feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Four feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Four feet high and risin'

Hey, come look through the window pane,
The bus is comin', gonna take us to the train
Looks like we'll be blessed with a little more rain,
Four feet high and risin'

How high's the water, mama?
Five feet high and risin'
How high's the water, papa?
Five feet high and risin'

Well, the rails are washed out north of town
We gotta head for higher ground
We can't come back till the water comes down,
Five feet high and risin'

Well, it's five feet high and risin'

- Johnny Cash, Five Feet High and Rising

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Friday June 13 2008
Note from JWR:

Please mention SurvivalBlog whenever you call in to a talk radio show or a podcast where they are discussing preparedness. Thanks!

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Some Preparedness Implications of Rapidly Escalating Fuel Prices

The recent jump in fuel prices are going to have some far reaching effects on our economy. There is speculation that crude oil may soon spike to $150 to $170 per barrel. As prepared individuals, we need to adapt our plans, accordingly. It is noteworthy that many of us long hence foresaw these dark days, and installed underground fuel tanks, bought alternate fuel vehicles, multi-fuel generators, and at least one vehicle just for the sake of fuel economy. (If you look at the Retreat Owner Profiles--most of which were written in late 2005 and early 2006--you will see a remarkable number of fuel-efficient "secondary" vehicles.) SurvivalBlog readers plan ahead, and it shows.

In a recent issue of The Daily Reckoning, Bill Bonner wrote: "Just on Thursday and Friday of last week, wholesale gasoline prices went up 33 cents. No typo. That’s 33 cents, in two days. So let’s round it out and add another $500 to the annual gasoline bill to operate one average automobile in the US of A. If you are a two-car household, make that number $1,000. Just from a two-day spike. And that does not count the impact on diesel (killing trucking and agriculture) and jet fuel (killing airlines)."

Effectively, the recent price jumps will be like inflationary snorts of cocaine. Sooner or later, the higher cost of fuel will be "passed through" to consumers. Can you imagine what will happen to the retail price of just about everything if and when the price of gas tops $5.50 per gallon? Transportation cost increases are significant, but will impact some product prices more than others. The heavier and bulkier the item, or the farther it must travel (all the way from raw material to your doorstep) the greater the impact of the fuel price jumps. (One hint: If you've been planning to buy a gun vault, then buy it soon, and do so locally, from inventory that your dealer already has on hand. If you delay, it will likely cost $200 more, this time next year.) What will happen to Fed-Ex , UPS, and US Postal Service rates next year? It won't be pretty. OBTW, if you are thinking about setting up a home-based mail order business, then you'd had better consider focusing on small and lightweight products, such as used DVDs.

Think through what the fuel prices will do for various product prices and availability (think: spot shortages), and who they will affect life at your retreat.

I predict that there will be a long lag time while the price of propane catches up to the prices of other fuels. The cost of electricity will also lag behind, especially in regions that have predominately hydroelectric power. In the long run, however, prices will undoubtedly catch up. Exploit this lag time to build up the alternative energy potential of your retreat. Think through you options, do some comparison pricing, and then get busy. (Consider the merits and drawbacks of photovoltaics, wind, micro-hydro, bio-gas, biodiesel, geothermal, wood-fired steam/co-generation, and so forth.)

Vehicles

If you are planning to buy additional vehicles for your retreat, consider the following:

One of your vehicles should be a very fuel-efficient runabout. (Something like a used Geo Metro or Toyota Corolla--but for serious preparedness planning avoid the high cost and complexity of a hybrid.) If you need four wheel drive, consider buying a used Subaru. Notably, Subaru all-wheel-drive cars are the most popular cars with America's contract rural mail carriers. Also consider getting a mo-ped or motorcycle for handling some of your errands in the current pre-Schumeresque times.

Look for a fleet surplus propane-powered pickup. (Utility companies often use these. Watch for auction announcements.) If you could get one that is 4WD, that would be ideal. But even if you can't find one that is 4WD, one option is finding a 4WD of the same year and the same maker as your 2WD propane-engine truck, and then combining parts to create a "Frankentruck." Not only would this be great mechanical experience, but it will leave you with another nearly complete vehicle to cannibalize for spare parts. Another option, albeit more expensive, is converting an existing 4WD to propane. Because Propane tanks are large, this is best accomplished with a 4WD pickup. (I have seen pairs of 47-gallon capacity "torpedo tanks" installed above the wheel wells in a pickup box. This allows nearly full use of the pickup bed space.) Since a propane conversion will likely void a warranty, it is best done with an older vehicle that is "out of warranty". Speaking of propane, don't miss the recent piece by FerFAL, (SurvivalBlog's correspondent in Argentina), posted at his personal blog site: Alternative fuel for your car. It describes a gaz naturel comprimé (GNC) conversion done on his Korean import car.

Own at least one E85-compatible "Flex Fuel" vehicle (FFV).

If your budget allows it, consider getting an electric vehicle. (Several times in SurvivalBlog, I've mentioned Bad Boy Buggy electric ATVs as well as ATV suspension conversions for electric golf carts.) An electric ATV makes an ideal "at the retreat " utility vehicle, particularly for someone that has a large alternate power system with a battery bank.

Here is one vehicle possibility that might at first seem counterintuitive: There will probably be thousands of used recreational vehicles (RVs) hitting the market in the next few years--some for pennies on the dollar. Budget-minded preppers might consider buying an older RV to live in, while building their retreats. Just keep in mind that the resale value will likely drop to nearly nothing if gas prices continue to escalate, so only buy one if you can truly get it dirt cheap.

Horse Power

For the really long term, learn as much as you can about horses, and change your purchasing plans is this approach matches your needs and the pasture carrying capacity of your retreat. There is a lot to this: horsemanship, hay cutting (preferably horse-powered), hay storage, pasture fencing, a barn, tack, veterinary supplies, and so forth. Here at the Rawles Ranch, our saddle horse Money Pit may soon have some new friends in the pasture.

Hay and grain prices have been sky high for a full year now, so this has pushed the price of horses down tremendously. At present, in much of the western US, good saddle saddle horses are literally being given away. Just ask around. If you are not yet an experienced rider, then limit your search to older, gentle "bomb proof" mares or geldings. If you have plenty of pasture and hay ground, take advantage of the current low prices for horses. Buy them while they're cheap. Watch your newspaper classified ads and Craig's List for horses as as well as tack, hay mowers, and a horse trailer. In addition to saddle horse, think in terms of working horses. So while you are searching for saddles, also look for wagons, buck boards, horse collars, long reins, log chains, and other work horse tack.

Fuel Storage

Storing extra fuel is a natural for family preparedness. If you use propane, consider buying a larger tank. That fuel will be like money in the bank. Ditto for gasoline and diesel fuel. (See the SurvivalBlog archives for details on fuel stabilizers and and antibacterial additives. (The latter is for diesel. Yes, bacteria will actually grow in diesel fuel.) What size tank(s)? The bigger, the better. That way you can buy during occasional dips in the market as well as have a reserve that will help ride through any spot shortages. Consult you local fire code for any limits where you live. I generally prefer underground tanks, for both OPSEC and fire safety.

Generators

Needless to say, flexibility will be your goal with your backup generator(s). Various diesel generator and tri-fuel generators have already been discussed at length in SurvivalBlog. Despite its current high price tag, diesel is still a viable fuel for standby generators. Keep in mind that you can legally burn less expensive off-road (untaxed) diesel, biodiesel, and even home heating oil in your diesel genset. (Of course consult your state and local laws before doing so.)

Retreat Locales

Higher fuel costs will likely change the way the at you look at your retreat, and where it is located. If you are retired, self-employed, or if you telecommute, the impact won't be nearly so great. You can simply adapt your lifestyle to make trips into town less often. But if you have a daily job "in town", then the impact could be substantial. The whole concept of "public transportation" is foreign to folks that live in places like Wyoming or the Dakotas. Even carpooling can be difficult for people that live in lightly populated areas. OBTW, speaking of carpooling, I predict that both carpooling and ride sharing will undergo a great resurgence in the next few years. The information networking power of the Internet will undoubtedly be put to full use in matching drivers/riders and destinations. The carpooling networking sites like SpaceShare and eRideShare will probably become very popular.

Remote properties will seem even more remote when gas tops $5 per gallon. This has both positive and negative implications. The good news is that it will make remote properties more affordable and will also make them less likely to fall prey to "commuter criminals" and looters. But the bad news is if you are trapped in a corporate job and must commute to work. Ditto for farmers and ranchers that must get what they produce to market.

If you have not yet bought a retreat, then you might want to make the new fuel cost paradigm a more important part of your locale selection process. As I've mentioned before in SurvivalBlog, if you do some concerted searching, you might be ale to find a piece of land with a low-volume natural gas well, or a surface coal seam. Another possibility is finding a property with a large year-round stream and sufficient change in elevation ("fall") allowing installation of a micro-hydro system. If you are an adherent to Peak Oil theory, then you might consider buying a retreat that is close to a community in a truck farming region--someplace that can expected to be self-sufficient in the event of chronic gas and diesel shortages. There are of course security trade-offs, so such a decision might be a momentous one to make. (Since most survivalists value having "elbow room".)

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Letter Re: Neighbors and Friends are Failing to Adapt and Prepare for New Threats

Mr. Rawles:
I stumbled upon your blog site last month and it was the equivalent of a "reboot" in terms of my own thinking about how to adapt to the conditions surrounding "Peak Oil" and Global Warming. I'm grateful for your web site and efforts. I commend your honesty. I envy your faith.

In the past months local and national events highlight the scope of the trouble we now all face. I'm afraid the direction is irreversible. To list a few, gasoline and diesel prices have climbed to new heights, both global and local weather conditions indicate a promise of drought and large scale crop collapse, and our infantile and narcissistic population is in grave denial. I would add this denial is paired with ignorance - as most people in American are unfamiliar with grave or harsh living conditions, nor do they care to learn about adapting to them. "Oh, that's not going to happen here."

As I urge those in my closest circle to begin to prepare for a number of increasingly bad scenarios - I am met with interest, curiosity, indifference and some ridicule. I am the family "kook". My wife reminds me; "Jeremiah." (This was discussed in the book, "Night" by Elie Weisel.)

People are not ready to think about what is coming. For example, in response to a Craig's List ad I posted for a car pool rider (to share my commute.) I've received zero interest. A local news channel did a story on my ad and interviewed me for the story. The article included my comments about "Peak" and a "Long Emergency." No takers. At the YMCA, where I train regularly, most men I speak to feel there is no global warming and either don't know what Peak Oil is or feel the best solution is to bomb another country that has oil. I think to myself: these are the folks I'll be defending my home against. Finally, when I suggested to my parents the need for spare supplies in their vacation house - my suggested list brought denials, anger and ridicule. They can't even begin to think of survival scenarios or WTSHTF. (Their home is a McMansion built on some nice farmland - which I see has having great agricultural value in the future, provided there is adequate rain.)

James H. Kunstler, who wrote the book "The Long Emergency" recently spoke at our school auditorium. Only 20 or so people attended, and few had questions indicating any understanding of how violent these events may actually become. Another professor recently lectured at an area college on the same topic - and spelled it all out. He planned to bug out in advance. A local news paper carried the story. Perhaps this shows some progress? I commended the writer by e-mail.

To adapt, I began to prepare for the worst; I'm reading more about the subject, making no assumptions, stocking food, water and key equipment. I intend to train my 12 year-old to soon have familiarity with all weapons in our home (.22 rimfires, 12 gauge, and 9mm pistols.) Given our home location, its defensibility, and our firepower - I'm unsure as to how long we can make it - especially if civil unrest or military response is too strong, but I'm committed to dedicating resources to the cause - to do what I can for as long as I can and to educating those around me who will listen (this is tricky.)

From speaking with others on the same page, many are overwhelmed. I am too, but I always remind them that they can do a little every week. Underscored here also is that resources such as the bogus tax stimulus checks can be used to build food and supply stocks. I keep a purchase list ready - which will go against my fake tax give back. Grocery runs always include "extras" that will store well.

On a final note, although I'm dedicated to "hoping for the best and preparing for the worst," I find it very difficult to bring my wife and only child into some of these scenarios. My wife is a great life partner and understands this situation very well - but some of this remains unspeakable. Further, I caution great care as to how to work with children on these matters. It is worse than the movie, "I Am Legend" because the "infected" will be real and much more plentiful, and the survival resources few. Camping and "activities" build the skill sets and offer the instructional opportunities, as someone already posted.

Thanks again for what you do, - Jon

JWR Replies: You are correct. Pollyanna denial is rampant. You aren't the only one that encounters it.

Don't worry about ridicule. Noah was considered a "kook". So were the Jews that emigrated from Germany in the mid-1930s. Most of them survived, while those that didn't ended up in the camps and many of them were subsequently victims of Nazi genocide.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Matt in Texas suggested this piece: Kobyashi Maru. Matt's comment: "This should help make it clear that the Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place. No matter what decision is made on the discount rate...we are toast."

o o o

Thanks to David F for sending this: Two dead in Europe fuel protests. David notes: "For those who think food riots and fuel shortages are limited to the Third World, I think this article might bring things home a bit. This is hoarding, boycotts, people dying, [all] because of oil. Could the US be next?"

o o o

Flood news from the Midwest: Downtown flooding 'devastating and unbelievable' say onlookers. And meanwhile we read: Corn hits record, soy rallies as floods expand

o o o

I just noticed that following news of some short term "strength" in the US Dollar, the spot price of silver has been pushed down below $16.40 per ounce. Dips like these are a great buying opportunity!

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway

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Thursday June 12 2008
Note from JWR:

There are just three days left in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $650. The high bid is now at $810. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book "Boston's Gun Bible." The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on Sunday, June 15th.

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Two Letters Re: Request for Investing Advice

Hello Jim,
First off, thanks for an excellent book/resource in your novel "Patriots". I read it in the last week and it has had a profound effect on me. I also felt the writing was quite good, being entertaining and educational at the same time. Thanks for it!

After reading your book (and listening to my brother, who has been talking about TEOTWAWKI for some time now), I did finally do some things to prepare in the last week, but I wonder what the next step is for me.

First off, I invested about $80 to make some shelving in a storage closet downstairs that had previously been filled with junk.

Then I went to the local Wal-Mart and bought canned and dry goods: about six each of peas, corn, refried beans, tuna, pinto beans, stove top stuffing, rice, ramen, breakfast cereal, and so forth. I made sure to only buy stuff that we would eat anyway. I guess I’m not quite sure to buy whole grain and a mill, because truthfully unless we get to TEOTWAWKI, there’s no way we would use that stuff. Anyway, total cost for all this food was around $180, and it filled about 2/3rds of my shelves (the [shopping] cart was full though). I figure this is a good start, and now I feel if there was a “run on the grocery store” we would still be able to live for one to two months.

I also have lots of guns of varying calibers, including 8 rifles and 5 handguns, and probably 500 rounds of ammo total, approximately 300 of these are cartridges for my 9mm Glock which I just purchased new a few months ago.

Based on my brother’s advice, I did buy 12 one-ounce gold coins within the last year, and have those here in my house. After having read your book, I did go trade one of those coins for silver the other day, so I now have approximately $900 in silver as well.

I have decided to allocate all of my tax “stimulus” check towards preparing for the future. Our stimulus was approximately $700 (I made too much money to get the full amount), so I have about $400 left. So here’s the question: What do I spend this $400 on? More silver? More food? More ammo? I assume your opinion is that the price of all of these is going to continue to go up, but I hate to buy ammo when I see how doggone expensive it is now!

One more question: Between my wife and me we have a substantial sum invested in retirement funds, mostly in low-load mutual funds through Vanguard. I am wondering about taking a portion of this money and putting into a money-market account so that when/if the stock market crashes I will retain some value. However, I am also aware that inflation would eat this money alive, if we get into heavy inflation. I would be interested in your opinion on this question as well. Thanks, - Mr. H. in Wyoming

JWR Replies: Your tax stimulus check is probably best spent on additional useful tangibles such as food, first aid supplies, and ammo. Despite what appears to be the high price tag, the price of ammunition will likely continue to go up. Don't think of it as ammo going up in price. It is more a function of the dollar going down in purchasing power.

With the recent collapse of the credit market, US stocks are now quite precarious. The dearth of credit is shutting down the economy. But regardless of whether or not there is a stock market crash or if US companies continue to limp along, US stocks certainly won't have the same returns that they did in years past. So it is best to divest yourself of nearly all of your stocks and stock mutual funds. IMHO, the only stocks that are presently worth holding are in the energy sector and precious metals mining, and even then those should be the minority of your full portfolio.

At the present time, after paying off any outstanding consumer debt (such as car loans or credit cards) I'd recommend that you then reinvest the remainder of your mutual fund divestiture, as follows:

40% in inflation indexed US treasuries (TIPS),
20% in a global currency fund (to minimize your dollar exposure),
10% in additional food storage and various preparedness gear (first aid, communications, et cetera.)
10% in money market account
10% in silver mining and energy stocks
10% in barterable tangibles (as I've described in my blog--things like guns, common caliber ammo, and full capacity magazines)

However, your priorities my differ so you might want to adjust those ratios. The important thing is insulating yourself from inflation, and a the likely collapse of both the stock market and the US dollar in foreign exchange. Because of the global credit collapse, we are on the verge of a depression that could be as bad or worse than that of the 1930s. Be ready. Get out of stocks and minimize your US Dollar exposure.

If and when inflation jumps to double digits, even TIPS won't be a safe investment (since government figures under-state inflation). At that point you should then sell your TIPS and close you money market account. Invest that more heavily into tangibles--both barterables and retreat-worthy land. By that time, the real estate market will be in cardiac arrest, so there will be some genuine bargains. Living in Wyoming, you might consider some of the locales I mention in my book "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation", such as The Big Horn Basin, and the Star Valley. Look for properties with good topsoil and plenty of water. Be sure to buy land that is on defendable terrain and that is well-removed from any major highway.

Good Morning Mr. Rawles,
I found SurvivalBlog about a year ago have been hooked since, [your novel] "Patriots" was inspiring and awesome.

I would like your opinion regarding 401(k) retirement funds. I am 49 years old and have a fair amount of 401(k) funding, I understand any early withdrawal would result in about 30% tax and loss. I know you don't have a crystal ball but would 70% not be better then a 100% loss in a situation of a full economic collapse. I know these are very hypothetical questions but I have come to respect your opinions, and could fast-track my preparedness if I cashed out early. - John V.


JWR Replies: First, ask your company if they offer a "Self-directed 401(k)" option. If so, you can put your money in a contrarian ("bear") stock (and stock shorting) fund, and some energy and silver mining stocks.

Is there any chance of rolling over your 401(k) into an Individual Retirement Account (IRA)? If so, you can get a US Gold Eagle IRA. (The folks at Swiss America can set one up for you.) I have heard of some people "trapped" in very limited 401(k)s that have switched to independent contractor status, changed jobs, or even gone so far as to briefly quit their jobs and then get re-hired, just to free up their 401(k) funds to accomplish a rollover without penalties. (Some of these approaches, of course, would require having a sympathetic boss.)

If none of those approaches will work in your situation, then at least re-direct your 401(k) out of stocks and stock mutual funds and into a money market fund. (Most corporate retirement fund plans allow at least a small portfolio "menu" of investment approaches.) But I would not recommend doing anything so radical as taking a 70% loss.

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Letter Re: What is a "Gray" Front Sight Course Certificate?


JWR –
Is the Front Sight certificate [offered in the current auction, and available as writing contest prizes] good for the course that includes the “free” pistol? Also, you keep mentioning “gray” certificates but not all of us know what that means! Thanks, - MDR

JWR Replies: The "gray" course certificate is for one person to attend one Front Sight four day course (or for two people to attend a two day course.) The certificates printed on gray paper are transferable, but are "introductory", meaning that they can't be used by someone that has already attended a Front Sight course. The four day courses are normally $2,000.

Front Sight's current "Get a Gun" training and gear package offer (including a Springfield Armory XD pistol) is a separate offering. But that also includes a gray course certificate, which makes the offer a real bargain!

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Letter Re: Bulk Storage Grain Now Available in New Zealand

Dear JWR,
You have rightly pointed out in the past that New Zealand is a good location for surviving a world crisis. New Zealand has less than half the average population density of the USA (39/sq mi. versus 80/sq mi.), there are just 1.3 million people in our largest city and many regions are blessed with wonderful conditions for horticulture.
Of course there are downsides to New Zealand's isolation during normal times. The United States of America is a large marketplace with over 300 million people - you can have supplies for any niche need delivered to your door. Over here, often the airfreight on specialized survival goods from the US costs more than the goods themselves! And unless you can fill a shipping container, you can forget about purchasing any heavy goods.

I'm writing to let your readers know that there is a new company offering bulk storage wheat and rice in New Zealand. Our product is packed into mylar bags and the oxygen is removed, leaving a partial vacuum with a nitrogen atmosphere. The bags are protected by a heavy duty HDPE pail with sealing lid, for durability and a secondary oxygen barrier.
Wheat stored in this way has the potential to last 20 years or more, and white rice for 10 years or more.

I'm a survivalist who has got into business, not a businessman who has got into survival - I regularly use a grain mill to turn my own product into delicious wholemeal breads at home. I would like to invite your readers to view our Enduring Supplies Limited web site. As an introductory offer, I will offer Survivalblog readers a 10% discount on whole pallet orders and a 5% discount on smaller orders placed in the next two weeks (finishing Friday 27th June). I look forward to hearing from some like minded 'locals'. Kind Regards, - Craig (a 10 Cent Challenge subscriber)

JWR Replies: I wish you the best with your business. It will certainly fill what has been a chronic need.

OBTW, you mentioned New Zealand's population density. The stats that I have seen list North Island's density as 27.5 per square kilometer, compared to just 6.7 per square kilometer on South Island. There is no doubt where I'd recommend our Kiwi (and Kiwi wannabe) readers live: the farming and ranching country on South Island.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Our friend Michael Panzner of the Financial Armageddon blog just linked to this key article: Crisis shifts to regional lenders. This shows that the global credit collapse is s far from over!

o o o

Larry W. flagged this piece by Jim Sinclair: Total Notional Value of Derivatives Outstanding Surpasses One Quadrillion Dollars. That is a lot of zeros! BTW, I think that Sinclair's figures are high, since among other things, credit derivatives are actually dropping rapidly in their notional aggregate value. This is inevitable as the global credit market is continuing to contract. But regardless, the risk posed by derivatives is still enormous The recent Bear Stearns bailout is indicative of the extreme measures that could be required, when a counterparty suddenly ceases to exist.

o o o

Bob H. spotted a safety alert article that describes in detail a threat posed by the "The Meth Head Next Door": Anhydrous ammonia and propane cylinders

o o o

Pain at the Pump: It’s Time to Start Thinking About $7 a Gallon Gasoline. Meanwhile, we read: An ominous warning that the rapid rise in oil prices has only just begun

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United Stated where men were free." - President Ronald Reagan

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Wednesday June 11 2008
Letter Re: An Army Officer's Observations

Mr Rawles,
I found your web site a few months ago and have been pouring through it ever since. This past week, I finished reading the SurvivalBlog archives through the end of 2007. Just six months of archives left :) I also just finished reading your excellent novel, "Patriots"

As a fundamentalist Christian who was homeschooled, I truly appreciate your willingness to unabashedly share your faith and your conservative family values through your web site and writings.

I am also a West Point graduate who became an Armor officer in 2000, so I really enjoy and relate to your anecdotes and descriptions (and military jargon & acronyms) of your personal Military Intelligence experience, as well as the fictional experiences of "Doug Carlton". Your descriptions of M1A1 tanks, Fort Knox, Advanced Camp (Camp Buckner for me), et cetera. are all spot on. Your description of tankers, down to the details about being chronically horrible on security, was exactly correct. I well remember getting a CS [tear gas] canister thrown into our perimeter at [National Training Center] NTC by the [Observer Controller] OC because we were all asleep. We received a briefing on the vulnerabilities of Abrams tanks at the Armor Captain's Career Course and, in light of that, I found your discussion of the matter in "Patriots" very interesting. As a note of interest, since the Iraq War, the training in the Armor CCC seems to place renewed importance on urban warfare and especially on combined operations with Infantry. In fact, I believe Armor and Infantry CCCs have combined now to form a single "Maneuver Captain's Career Course".

After my platoon leader time, I worked in the Fort Knox Garrison S3 shop as a planner for two years at Fort Knox's Emergency Operations Center, working on their contingency operations plans for everything from earthquakes to terrorists attacks. I took advantage of my time there in taking a lot of FEMA online courses, getting my amateur radio license, and taking a lot of civilian and military training in [Search and Rescue] SAR. That being the case, I absolutely loved the Fort Knox aspects of the plot in "Patriots" and wish to heck that I had your book during my time there to pass around to the other guys. My time there was also the point in my life when I realized that a lot can go wrong in this world and I'd better have a plan to prepare for it.

Wanting some change, I later became a Civil Affairs officer with deployments to Iraq and West Africa. Civil Affairs just became it's own branch in 2006 as the Army recognizes that "civilians on the battlefield" play an enormous role in low intensity conflicts like Iraq. The civilian dimension, both as potential OPFOR and BLUFOR, is being studied and analyzed in depth in today's Army, as it should be. However, it is terrifying to contemplate a "Patriots" type of scenario where that scrutiny, analysis, and subsequent operations would be turned towards our own populace. Double ditto for all things related to the new branch of Psychological Operations

After reading survivalblog, I've been re-examining my military experiences, especially my time in Iraq and West Africa from the survivalist viewpoint. I don't want to make this e-mail into a book, so I'll only mention a few things for now: In many of the Medical Civic Action Programs (MEDCAP) that we conducted in Africa, one of the hugely popular items was adaptive eyewear. Essentially, they are adjustable glasses where the user can modify the power of each lens to his or her needs. It works through fluid-filled lenses. You can checkout their web site at http://www.adaptive-eyecare.com/index.htm . I'm not affiliated with them, by the way, but I have handed out a lot of these things. They look like the Army BCGs, so they aren't pretty but they are effective. I went to a village last year where they told me their number one medical need was eye care. Actually, it appeared as though a large percent of the elderly people had cataracts which we couldn't fix obviously, but the adjustable glasses were a hot item for many others. I thought about it when I read some of the previous posts about eye care and about barter items. How many people would have lost or broken their glasses after a few years of TEOTWAWKI? Or their prescription changes? Glasses might be a popular barter item, but who wants to stock every prescription imaginable? These glasses can be adjusted from +6 to -6 Diopters.

The only catch is... I think this company mostly sells their glasses in bulk to NGO-type organizations for use in third world countries, so I have no idea if they are available to the normal person here in these united States. However, now that you know they're out there, you might keep a watch out for something like it. This is an example of something that is probably not currently marketable in a developed country because of lack of need. However, that could quickly change if TSHTF. I think I heard that the glasses were about $10 or $12 each, but they were trying to bring the costs down. Also, I'm no eye doctor, but I surmised that one of the reasons for the surprisingly high number of cataract and eye problems in these places is that they go through their whole life living outdoors without sunglasses or eye protection. Granted, we were in or near the Sahara Desert, where conditions are unusually harsh, but the lesson I took away is that sunglasses and eye protection are essential, especially if spending a lot of time in harsh-sun environments or anywhere there isn't an eye doctor.

On another note of interest, probably the number one ailment by far we saw were bowel problems, probably related to unsanitary conditions and unpurified water. There were also always a sizable number of people who had dental problems who were hugely grateful when our dentist pulled their problem teeth. As you've mentioned before, having a dental kit and knowing how to pull teeth doesn't sound too exciting now but if the time came when you needed it, you sure would be thankful that you could. Our dentist made it look so easy, pulling people's teeth while they sat on an Army cot or the back of a pickup, that I asked him to pull my wisdom teeth. He wouldn't do it, though, saying that there's a big difference in pulling out a malnourished person's tooth and pulling out a McDonald's fed American's teeth. Plus, he didn't want the liability in case of complications. My wisdom teeth weren't a problem for me, but I went ahead and got them pulled when I got back from the deployment. I figured it was better to get that out of the way now rather than wait until TEOTWAWKI when I'd be sitting on the back of a pickup while some goon is putting a pair of pliers in my mouth.

One huge "mistake" that we made was our method of handing out some giveaways during our MEDCAPs. Be careful of your how you hand out charity! We gave out bolts of cloth (the cloth had pro-American prints on them) to the women of one village and within a few hours, we had near-riot conditions. Several people were injured and nearly suffocated and/or trampled, the local police grew, shall we say, heavy-handed, and we shut down all operations. Your advice of giving out charity from a distance and using an intermediary like the church is exactly correct. Another lesson is that bolts of cloth are another really popular item for people who have to make their own clothes.

Thank you for all you do. My 10 Cent Challenge contribution will be forthcoming. God bless you and your family. Respectfully, - The Kansan

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Letter Re: Potassium Iodide Versus Potassium Iodate for Post-Nuke Thyroid Gland Protection

Jim,
I'm doing some preparation research now since I'll be pretty close to Yucca Mountain when it comes online, which I ultimately expect it to. I recently saw a posting on your blog [from "Cody"] regarding the taking of the thyroid blockers Potassium Iodate [KI] and Potassium Iodide [KIO3] in case of a nuclear event. The person writing you said that Potassium Iodate was superior because it didn't cause as much stomach irritation as Potassium Iodide. I did a web search on "potassium iodide versus potassium iodate" and came up with these links:
Approved Brands
Iodide Versus Iodate
WHO Guide to Radiation Prophylaxis (PDF)

I did as was suggested and searched for Potassium Iodate as being FDA approved and couldn't find it. Also, the World Health Organization actually does say that Potassium Iodate actually causes more stomach irritation, not less (see page 17 of the third link I included)- " KI is the preferred alternative, since KIO3 has the disadvantage of being a stronger intestinal irritant". That directly contradicts what Cody claimed in his letter. I just wanted to pass this along to get the accurate info out.
Take care, - Bill in Las Vegas

JWR Replies: Thanks for finding that piece of information! OBTW, living in Las Vegas, I think that you should be even more concerned about Las Vegas as the potential target of a terrorist nuclear "dirty bomb" than you are about the Yucca Mountain storage facility, or the vehicles transporting nuclear waste to it.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Thanks to Manuel for sending this ".45 ACP versus 400 pound bear" story from the mountains of eastern Oregon: ‘Bears always run away'. OBTW, hammer down on a live cartridge is not a good way to carry a Model 1911 pistol! (There are safety issues in lowering the hammer without causing a negligent discharge, and the pistol carried in "Condition Stupid" is very slow to get into action.) Most bears and two-legged predators are not nearly so polite as to give someone the time to both un-holster and then thumb-cock a M1911 pistol. These pistols are properly carried in "Condition One" (a.k.a. "cocked and locked".) I hope that the reporter just got that part of the story wrong. Oh and BTW, somebody must also educate the reporter on the difference between a "clip" and a magazine.

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Several readers sent us this chilling Daily Mail article: Nine meals from anarchy - how Britain is facing a very real food crisis

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A reminder that the WRSA has another Practical Medicine course scheduled, in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, June 20 to June 22. This is excellent, very affordable training that is taught by an Emergency Room doctor with many years of practical experience. The course is subtitled: "Field Expedient Medical Care for Outdoorsmen in Austere Environments."

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Jack in Texas notes that the US is not the only country that is top-heavy with accumulated debt. He sent this Korea Times link: Household Debts Hit All-Time High of W640 Trillion

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"All you need for happiness is a good gun, a good horse, and a good wife." - Daniel Boone

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Tuesday June 10 2008
Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $650. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book "Boston's Gun Bible." The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on June 15th.

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Letter Re: Alaska as a Retreat Locale

Although I think there is a lot of mindless drivel on television, I wouldn't have know about your blog site if I hadn't watched [the news story on CNN [that mentioned SurvivalBlog] yesterday. I was on the computer all afternoon yesterday reading information you have posted, as well as visiting the sites of some of your advertisers.

You are right on your opinion of Alaska, [regarding its unsuitability for most people as a retreat locale]. We live in a coastal fishing community (population under 3,000 year round, double that in the summer when the cannery workers & tourists come to town) and are not connected to the road system. Everything comes in by plane or water (barge and ferry). We have one gas station and have heard that gas just went to $5.42 per gallon and diesel is over $6 per gallon.(You know how gas stations have signs out with their prices on them? Not here - they're the only game in town, so they don't have to post prices. If you need gas you have to go see them eventually. Bread is $4.99 a loaf, a two pound block of Tillamook cheese is over $16.00 and a 32 oz. jar of Best Foods mayonnaise is $7.65 in one of the stores here. (We have three small grocery stores here, two of which are owned by a local person and the other by a Canadian company). We sometimes have to wait weeks for car parts, etc. to come in and some items are prohibited to ship from the lower 48, like ammo. We have a very short growing season and not much in the way of top soil (lots of muskeg) so raising our own veggies is difficult.On the plus side, we have one freezer full of seafood and another full of moose, as well as some I have canned.

I feel fortunate to have grown up learning from my grandmother who told me stories of raising six kids on a farm with no electricity or running water and what it was like to go through the Depression. (when they cleaned the soot out of kerosene lantern chimneys they'd save it and use it to polish their Sunday shoes). I learned to can from my mom and our family always had a frugal mindset. I worked in a health food store years ago and began to learn about whole grains, etc. as well as wild plants for medicine and food. Five years ago we moved to Alaska and I began to learn more about wilderness survival due to our remote location and travel by bush plane.

In my spare time I taught myself some skills that may come in handy, such as soap making. Skills are learned over a lifetime and it is an ongoing process.Also, there is a wealth of information rolling around in the heads of older people - all you have to do is ask them.

We will be returning to the Outside soon and your advice on locations will hopefully come in handy (we will have to settle in a location according to my husband's employment).

We have some of the skills we need, have been stocking up for a while, but have a ways to go.

I will be a frequent visitor to your site now that I know it's there. Thanks for the wealth of information. - Lonnie in Alaska

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Letter Re: Consumer Price Hikes for Food Will Continue

James –
I'm a long time reader first time writer. I have been in the food business for 31 years with many companies, over the past 12 months I have had to raise my prices around 27% but my costs have risen 57%. We are afraid to continue passing on the rise because business has already decreased substantially but within the next few months we will be forced to raise our prices another 25% or quit the business. What I am trying to say is that we are at most, only halfway through the food inflation which has already occurred, as to the future it is entirely possible that it could continue unabated. The difference between now and the inflation of the 1980s is demand. In the 1980s we suffered transportation and fuel cost crisis, we are currently have those same issues combined with demand exceeding supply for many items. - JPG

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Letter Re: Observations on Real World Pistol Malfunctions and Failures

Mr. Rawles,

Bill from Ohio writes: "Most people buy guns and they never shoot them, in fact, last time I heard a statistic regarding firearms usage in the United States, the national average of rounds fired per gun was seven - and that is over the entire lifetime of the owner!" There are about 250 million firearms in the US and about 10 billion rounds of ammunition sold per year. That's an average of 40 rounds per gun per year. On average, each US resident fires about 2,400 rounds of ammunition in a 72-year lifetime. Assuming a 40-year lifetime for a gun, that's roughly 1,600 rounds per firearm.
So "seven" is off by more than two orders of magnitude. It should have been obvious that this figure was seriously unrealistic. - PNG

JWR Replies: You are correct that Bill from Ohio's figure of an average of seven rounds was erroneously low. However, there are several qualifiers that I would add to your analysis of the 8 to 10 billion small arms cartridges produced in the US each year:

First, there are serious shooters and there are casual shooters. The serious variety ("target shooters") consume far more ammunition than most others, who fire very few cartridges through their guns.

Second, more ammunition is produced each year than is fired. This is purely anecdotal evidence, but I personally know several SurvivalBlog readers that only fire 20 to 50 rounds of centerfire per year and perhaps two or three times as many rimfire cartridges, yet they have 30,000+ rounds (including rimfire ammo) stored in their basements.

Third, not all ammunition is produced for the civilian market. The military Lake City Arsenal, for example, produces nearly 1.5 billion round per year, and only a tiny percentage of that is eventually fired by civilians.

Fourth, not all ammunition is produced for the domestic market. I recently saw a statistic of $3.1 billion worth of ammunition commercially exported by the US in 2005--not counting foreign military sales (FMS) programs. Assuming an average of 28 cents per cartridge, that equates to close to one billion rounds (perhaps 1/8th of US annual production) in exports. Offsetting that of course are ammunition imports, but US exports of ammunition far exceed imports.

Fifth, I believe that the oft-cited estimate of 250 million guns in the US is a low estimate. I think that the actual figure is closer to 400 million.

Together, all of these factors radically push down the number of rounds fired in centerfire guns that are purchased by casual shooters. There are quite a few guns sold that never get fired at all. These are the so-called "desk drawer" guns and "safe queen" guns. It is surprising to see how many guns described as "new in box", "like new in box", or "test fired only" that are advertised on the secondary market. (The listings at GunBroker.com and GunsAmerica.com are indicative.) Granted, there is no logical support for Bill from Ohio's figure, but I would assert that it was not off by nearly as large a margin as you suggest.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Several readers flagged this: US grain reserves reach the bottom of the barrel. Here is a key quote: "The only thing left in the entire CCC inventory will be 2.7 million bushels of wheat which is about enough wheat to make 1⁄2 of a loaf of bread for each of the 300 million people in America.” Back in mid-April, I told a New York Sun reporter about the massive outflow of US grain, and mentioned that I was surprised that the Bush Administration has not implemented export controls. With these recent figures, I am even more concerned. I believe in free markets, but I'm a realist. At some point in the near future, the Bush Administration is likely to step in and stop the hemorrhaging wheat from the US. If you haven't done so already, stock up on hard red winter wheat as soon as possible. By this time next year, wheat prices will likely double again.

o o o

Israeli minister says alternatives to attack on Iran running out. (A hat tip to SJC, for sending that link.) Be ready for the full implications of war with Iran, if and when it comes. We can expect dramatically spiking oil prices (and shortages) and possibly some acts of terrorism by sleeper agents inside our borders. There will also likely be a spike in the price of gold. (Gutsy investors might consider selling a portion of their gold holdings at that time, and then buying back in, on a subsequent dip. As they say on Wall Street: "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.") Secondarily, there will likely be diplomatic discord with any countries with extensive economic ties with Iran, such as France.

o o o

This CNN article on survivalism last month continues to gain attention, as it gets picked up by other new outlets: Survivalists get ready for global meltdown

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You might have noticed that last week Standard & Poors belatedly downgraded three of the big brokerage stocks. They now carry ratings that are nearly "junk." The ostensibly "neutral and unbiased" S&P of course should have done this nearly a year ago, but there has been plenty of collusion going on. In my estimation the entire financial world is still in the early stages of a meltdown, which was precipitated by the credit collapse last summer. It is just happening in slow motion. The bottom is still nowhere in sight. I stand by my predictions, particularly for the hedge funds. In a collapsing credit environment, they are nearly all doomed. With each passing quarter, they may fall like dominoes.

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"If America forgets where she came from, if the people lose sight of what brought them along, if she listens to the deniers and mockers, then will begin the rot and dissolution." - Carl Sandburg, American writer (1878-1967)

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Monday June 9 2008
Note from JWR:

Here is the link to the video clip of the CNN news story on Peak Oil preparedness that I mentioned last week. So much for "fifteen minutes of fame." This news story mentioned SurvivalBlog for all of about three seconds. Don't blink, or you'll miss it.

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Letter Re: For Want of a Battery

Mr. Rawles:
I was working through my "List of Lists" yesterday, and a thought struck me like a lightning bolt: Without batteries--lots of rechargeable batteries--I'm hosed. There are so many items that I'll depend on in an emergency that need batteries: My weather radio, Kenwood MURS handhelds (thanks for that suggestion, BTW), starlight scope, and my flashlights. (And thanks also for your suggestion of IR [flashlight] filters). Without [those battery-powered items as] "force multipliers", I'd be at huge disadvantage to looters, who could be wandering the countryside in droves, if and when it all hits the fan. So, with that realization, I'm investing in a small [photovoltaic] solar panel [for battery charging], and a boatload of NiMH batteries. Do you still recommend All-Battery [as a supplier]? And who sells a small panel--say 5 to 10 watts--that is reliable and weather-tight?

The battery situation reminds me of that old poem: "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost..." Thanks In Advance, - George L.


JWR Replies: Yes, All-Battery.com is an excellent source. If you can afford to, buy a triple or quadruple set for each piece of gear that takes batteries. (Even if you don't use them all yourself, the extra batteries will be ideal to keep on hand for barter and charity.) You are correct in mentioning the NiMH low self-discharge (LSD) technology (such as the Sanyo Eneloop). It is currently the most reliable rechargeable battery on the market.

As I've mentioned in the blog before, if you cannot afford a large battery bank of deep cycle batteries, then at least buy a "jump pack" 12 VDC gel cell unit. These are available with either110 VAC (US/Canada) and 220 VAC (UK) utility power charging cords. You can then plug in a 12VDC "smart" battery charging tray (using a DC power cord with cigarette lighter plug.) That is far more efficient than using an AC inverter and then a DC transformer (like those in most home battery chargers) That way you are just changing one DC voltage to another DC voltage--instead of a DC inverted -to-AC-and-transformed-back-to-DC proposition. (Which is very inefficient.)

To keep your "jump pack" charged, I recommend the small PV panels available from Northern Tool & Equipment--one of our Affiliate Advertisers. Once you are at Northern Tool's web site, search on Item # 339973.

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Two Letters Re: Advice on Backup Power for a Ranch in Western Canada

Hi Jim,
Regarding the Canadian who was wondering about wind power versus diesel. The Windmill is a good idea if he uses an Amateur Radio "Crankover" type tower, better than the crank up towers [usually sold for small] windmills. However, there is a caveat: If [the reader in Canada] goes with wind power, then have a spare. If he can [afford to] put up two windmills, then buy three, when he buys them[, which will provide one as a spare]. Even a bird hit on a reasonably modern power generating windmill will cause mucho damage. Just my humble opinion.

I had L-16 battery problems at the ranch this year for the first time in 10 years. Then I figured out the -60 F temps for nine nights was likely the cause. Oh well, stuff happens, corrective actions are underway. Regards, - The Army Aviator


Dear Jim,
Things have changed a bit [in recent years on wind generator reliability]. Yes, old school turbines with folding vanes are a pain, but there is a wind unit on the market that is darn near bullet-proof (in fact, I came up with a mod for that too.) They have been flown in hurricanes and are being used in Iraq, where high gusts and debilitating dust are the norm, never mind broiling heat. They keep ticking over, no problems and turn out juice in slow to screaming wind. They are the Hornet Series [from Hydrogen Appliances]

Essentially, they took a standard wind genny and beefed it up, almost to Russian-type specs. They just built everything another 20-50% thicker, wider, etc. then they had to. They are little beasts.
For any maintenance issues that might come up (rare) the best bet is to install them on a tip up tower. They can be lowered and raised with a come along or horses or whatever if necessary. Regards, - Mosby

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Letter Re: Observations on Real World Pistol Malfunctions and Failures

Dear James,
I've mentioned to you before that I'm a affiliate instructor with another major firearms training school. The comments made [by correspondent PPPP] about pistol malfunctions are 100% in line with what we see on our firing lines, as well.

We advise our students to run away screaming from any weapon that has 'target', 'match', 'custom', or 'accurized' stamped on the side of them. It was [Mikhail] Kalashnikov [the designer of the incredibly robust AK-47] who pointed out to us all that when you have something with moving parts, the parts need room to move! Most custom shop and high dollar pistols are temperamental beasts that react very poorly to heat and dirt. We see the $1,200+ [Model] 1911 choke and seize up all the time once the guns get hot. Most people buy guns and they never shoot them, in fact, last time I heard a statistic regarding firearms usage in the United States, the national average of rounds fired per gun was seven - and that is over the entire lifetime of the owner! Manufacturers sell guns that they bet will never see hard use, and usually they win that bet. And the tight, 'accurate' 1911s lead that pack. This is why it is imperative that every reader of your blog get out to the range and run their guns for real!

Yes, professional schools are expensive and the cost of ammunition is getting ridiculous, but at risk of sounding like a cheap slogan, how much is your life worth? Going out for two or three days of intense training will put your weapons and accessories through the use and abuse you will need to truly decide what works and what needs a second look, as well as teaching you a host of valuable skills.

Standing in a booth at the local indoor range, picking your gun up off of a table, and firing when you choose to at a static piece of paper, is at best an exercise in marksmanship. You haven't been training for real until things start breaking. We announce at the beginning of every class, that it is our sincerest hope, that everything our students brought with them - every gun, every holster, every magazine - breaks! If it sucks, we want to find that out now, not when innocent life is on the line. We run the gear and the students hard because that is the only way to truly test things, and it's the best way to build the confidence of the operator. [JWR Adds: And it is in grungy conditions that's the best place to learn to do stoppage clearance drills. If you can clear a Type 2 stoppage when your gun is filthy, when your arms are tired, and when you are under stress, then odds are that you can later do the same in combat. Fine motor skills are sharply degraded when you are under stress. Train like you will fight, repetitively!]

Things that I would add to the list of bad ideas:

1.) 8-round magazines for the 1911. I've seen few that finish two days of training without blowing apart. Usually the floor plate dislodges from the base of the magazine, leaving the student standing there with a pistol gummed up with loose rounds, a follower and a spring clogging the ejection port, and a magazine body that they can't get out of the well. [JWR Adds: The only brands of 8-round M1911 magazine that I have fond that good strength and longevity are original Colt brand, and MetalForm brand. And coincidentally, Colt now buys all of their .45 ACP M1911 magazines from MetalForm, under contract. (These are manufactured for Colt by MetalForm, using Colt "rampant stallion" stamped floorplates, and sold in Colt packages.)

2.) Recoil buffers - get these out of your life! Get them out of your pistols and get them out of your rifles! They never fail to disintegrate under heavy use, rendering the weapon useless until disassembled and cleaned out.

3.) Extended this, and enlarged that. Don't modify guns with oversized slide stops or extended mag release buttons, mercury guide rods or rubber grip sleeves, etc... There's one bit of wisdom that I learned the hard way years ago: There is nothing you can buy, bolt, glue or screw to a gun that will align your sights and press your trigger for you. You cannot spend money on things to make you shoot better, regardless of what our modern American mindset tells us. Marksmanship comes from proper technique and proper practice, and good old fashioned work. Obviously there are some issues like sharp edges and [S&W] J-frame [size] grips that are too small for a shooter's hands, but serious equipment issues are hardly what the majority of add-ons sold in the Brownell's catalog are aimed at. Save your money and spend it on training!

Lastly, I agree with every recommendation the writer mentioned. 'De-horning', or removing the sharpe edges off of carry guns, is highly recommended and something I have done to all of my concealment guns! And de-cocking the SIG [pistol]s before re-holster is mandatory on our range - as a matter of fact, we teach that the pistol be de-cocked every time the trigger finger breaks contact with the trigger and returns to register. This way, the trigger is reset to the position that the trigger finger is used to finding it every time it enters the trigger guard. That applies to all of the de-cocker equipped pistols - [such as] H&K USPs, Beretta 92s, Walther PPKs, et cetera.

The instructor who wrote the letter that you posted is obviously one of the good ones, and anyone within range of him would be well served by attending his course! - Bill from Ohio

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Odds 'n Sods:

Another bit of agreement on one of my predictions: Surging inflation will stoke riots and conflict between nations, says report

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Kory found us this: Antibacterial wipes can spread superbugs: study

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Shale sent us this AP news article: DOJ sues Honeywell over faulty bulletproof vests. Zylon is again the culprit. We've been warning SurvivalBlog readers for nearly three years to avoid Zylon vests.

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The Reuters London bureau reports a common theme on both sides of the Atlantic: Home-grown vegetables grow in popularity. The article begins: Almost 70 years after Britons were urged to Dig For Victory to produce hearty home-grown food to help the war effort, domestic horticulture is coming back.

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"For the want of a nail, the shoe was lost; for the want of a shoe the horse was lost; and for the want of a horse the rider was lost, being overtaken and slain by the enemy, all for the want of care about a horseshoe nail." - Benjamin Franklin

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Monday June 2 2008
Notes from JWR:

I got the following note from a reporter named Alison, at one of the big "Three Letter Acronym" television networks: "I"m a reporter a looking to do a story about how some people are becoming "survivalists" as our energy prices skyrocket. I am looking to profile someone, or a family, in the New York region, preferably in the New York Metro area, including the tri-state region. If they wish to remain anonymous, we can also call them different names and not give away where they live." If any SurvivalBlog readers are interested, send me an e-mail, and I will forward your e-mail to her.

The following is the first article sent to us for Round 17 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 17 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

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A Citizen's Band (CB) Radio Installation Primer, by C.G.

Citizen Band (CB) radio requires no FCC license to operate so it is a good choice for local communication. If cell phones fail to work for whatever reason, it may be the best method for remote communication since its range is better than FRS and GMRS. When I installed my first CB in a vehicle, I was happy just to get it in and be able to transmit to my buddy who lived the next block over. I’ve matured since then and my tolerance for white noise is less than what it used to be. I’ve learned over the years how to properly set up a radio system and I’m normally left with a CB that has few problems. So, I’m writing this to help those of you that use Citizen's Band radio in your vehicles, but may be plagued with noise, weak signals, or are just generally unhappy with your radios performance. At worst, this article should give you a jumpstart in your quest for a 1:1 standing wave ratio.

The basic components of a radio system are simple: power, radio, antenna feed line, and antenna. If all function properly, the radio shouldn’t give you any problems. But for vehicle use, with all those wires and working parts, problems do arise. I’ll talk about each of the above mentioned components and other aspects of radio communication you may need to know for a proper set up. Please keep in mind, these pages are not entirely comprehensive about CB installation or uses and may not answer all your questions… it’s written based upon my experiences in radio communication and quite frankly, I haven’t experienced it all, yet. But with that said, here goes:

Antenna
The two most important things to consider when mounting an antenna are grounding and positioning; when both of these things are considered and handled properly, you should receive a decent Standing Wave Ratio (SWR) reading (more about that, later). The best way to ground an antenna is to drill holes for the mounting bracket into a metal portion of your vehicle. If you’re concerned about resale value and don’t want to drill, look into mobile mounting units that require no drilling from a supplier like HRO (Ham Radio Outlet); they sell units for doors, trunks, rain channels, etc.
An antenna mounted in the middle of a metal roof will get the best signal because it is surrounded by a reflective surface. However, you may have a problem grounding the antenna without causing a leaking problem in your roof (but that would of course mean you won’t be asked to drive that often so it has its upside). You should mount the antenna where you will get the best SWR without sacrificing clearance or risking damage to the antenna or mount… or getting while driving in a rainstorm. I recommend a pickup bed immediately behind the cab, a lower quarter panel, or the lid of a trunk. If you mount your antenna in any of these locations, you should get be able to clear the roof line of your vehicle by about 6” to 1’ with a 36” antenna and transmit decently.

Two other things to consider are antenna quality and length. First, quality. Simply put, the two best brands of antenna on the market are Firestick and K40; I would recommend both of these two brands for a mobile unit. Second, the length of your antenna is a matter of preference quite honestly, although I will admit that longer antennas generally transmit and receive better. The reason it is more a matter of preference than performance is clearance. A 6-foot antenna mounted on a roof is going to have some clearance issues with your garage, trees, etc.; but if you choose to mount your antenna on a bumper, then a 6-foot model would probably be fine. I use a three foot antenna on my pickup and can transmit about five miles on the regular 40 CB channels. Just another issue to keep in mind when you purchase your setup.

Feed line
The Feed line is the length of coaxial ("coax") cable from the radio to the antenna. There are subtle differences in coax Feed line based upon insulation, grade of cable, etc. Generally speaking, the better the Feed line, the better it will transmit your signal, so buy quality coaxial cable. When buying the necessary mounting supplies, you need to make sure it is all matched for impedance. Almost all CB radios will have a 50 ohm impedance jack for the antenna input and most coax sold for CB radios is as well--but it doesn’t hurt to ask before you buy.

Much has been said about the length of the Feed line for a CB radio. Some people say that 18’ is the proper length, some people say 17’ is the proper length. To be honest, impedance match is the most important thing. But I cut my coax to 17’4” staying in practice with radio theory that the Feed line should be a factor of the wavelength that you will transmit on (I won’t bore you with the calculation with MHz and inches). 17’4” is probably much more than you will need, but will allow for an antenna choke if you need it. Be sure to buy Feed line that already has PL259 connectors already installed if you’re not familiar with the installation process. But FYI, it’s not difficult to learn if you’re familiar with soldering; any radio technician at Ham radio Outlet (HRO) can explain the process.

Radio and Installation
First, let me bash on the handheld units a bit. CB transmission is essentially line of sight transmission and anything that blocks the line of sight is going to weaken the signal. A handheld CB is for use outside of a vehicle… using it inside a vehicle you get minimal transmission distance because the signal bounces off the metal components of the vehicle, and even with a soft top jeep, the signal still needs to pass through a barrier and as a result it’s weakened. So if you’re using a handheld and wonder why you can’t hear much, there’s the reason. I will admit that I have a portable unit, a Midland 75-820, that is a handheld unit with a separate magnetic base antenna for use while in a vehicle. It’s performance is adequate but not optimal. Frankly, the Midland setup has two major problems, 1) engine noise which can be caused by the rotation of the alternator feeding back through the electrical system (a problem more prevalent on older vehicles but still present on many today) because the ground for everything is through the cigarette lighter… and 2) the limited volume the unit puts out with such a small speaker (an operator in a loud truck or topless jeep may have problems using this CB when driving on the highway). I use this unit only as a backup unit or in a second vehicle that doesn’t have a hard wired setup.

I currently use a Cobra 18WXST II. It is a reasonably priced unit from a quality manufacturer. Regardless of what you buy, most quality units will have an internal noise filter, scanning feature, and NOAA weather bands, but be sure to buy the unit best suited for your needs. If you’re interested in SSB transmitting or extended range, you may want to get a better unit; I recommend the Cobra 148GTL. [JWR Adds: That is also one of my favorite models. Its proven design remained essentially unchanged for many years, making it readily adaptable for out-of-band transmission by licensed ham radio operators that can transmit in the 10 Meter band (which is adjacent to Citizens Band.)]

Now, it sounds as though it should be common sense but be sure to mount the unit where it will be easy to use and not an obstruction while using the vehicle (the dash board is probably a bad choice as is the foot well near the pedals). I recommend bolting the unit to the center console or using a RAM mount somewhere on the transmission hump.

Cleanliness of installation should be considered too. Do you want coax cable on the floor of your back seat or run under the carpet? Do you want to run the wires out an existing hole in the chassis or drill a new one? I normally run the power line through the dash and directly to the battery; this eliminates some noise you can receive when tapping into an existing hot [12 VDC energized] line or fuse (more on that later). Be sure to use a fuse for your radio before hooking it up or you may soon be buying a new radio. The coaxial cable I normally run under the carpet or floor mats to the rear of the cabin and drill a small hole (if necessary) near the mount.

SWR
Now that the system is set up, lets learn how to optimize its transmission capability. The first thing we need to address is SWR. Essentially, a SWR meter measures how well your equipment will transmit and receive on the specific frequency you intend to use. If you have everything grounded properly, your equipment is impedance matched, and you have a decent antenna mounted in the correct location, the SWR should be ok. An SWR reading of 1:1 is optimal but a reading of 1.5:1 is excellent, a reading of 2:1 is considered good (actually great for most applications), but anything higher than 3:1, well, you pretty much wasted your time with the installation. Getting the best SWR on your specific rig is a matter of trial and error… in my experience, you can’t go wrong if you ground everything well and place the antenna on top of a metal roof or mount it where at least a portion of the antenna clears the roof line.

An SWR meter can be purchased at any Radio Shack or electronic supply house. Most come complete with directions and are pretty easy to use, even for a novice. If you’re unhappy with the SWR you get from your setup initially, don’t worry, you can improve it by tuning your antenna. All antennas are tunable, but some are tuned easier than others. Some need to be cut and some need to be bent to retard the oscillation on the part past the bend. The K40, for example, is one of the easier ones; it has a small whip that sticks out the top on the antenna and is moved up and down using a supplied Allen key; by adjusting the length of the whip, you can receive a better SWR reading.

Noise Elimination
Even if you are happy with the SWR you get on your system, you may still have problems with noise (one doesn’t necessarily effect the other) so lets learn how to eliminate that noise.
Most radios come with an internal noise filter… a button or toggle switch on the face of the radio that eliminates much of the squelch noise from the radio output. The problem with this feature is that it also makes distant transmissions difficult to hear. If you want to (or need to) address the problem further, know that noise on a CB unit (while the engine is running) is normally caused by two things… 1) noise coming through the hotline of the radio or 2) noise being picked up by the antenna.
(Note: You need to remember, a CB picks up 27 MHz radio waves and an engine or other vibrations can cause interference and distortion of those radio waves. Power windows or seats can cause feedback… that’s normally caused by the electrical motor. An older engine can create oscillation heard on a CB… chances are it’s the points spinning in the distributor. So noise isn’t necessarily just an electrical hotline problem… you need to eliminate both possibilities mentioned above.)

A few simple tests can isolate the source of the noise.
1. Hook the radio up to the battery directly or better yet, a separate battery not hooked into the truck’s electrical system. This will bypass and eliminate any noise caused by the alternator or firing of the cylinders. If you still get noise, it’s coming in through the antenna.
2. Disconnect the Feed line from the antenna or the Feed line from the radio. This will eliminate any noise being received on the antenna. If you still get the noise, it’s coming from the power/ground lines.
I’ve had both types of problems (both on the same rig once)… so here are the fixes I used to eliminate most (not all) of the noise.

Antenna Noise
To eliminate noise caused by the antenna receiving unwanted signals, put in an “antenna choke.” Disclaimer time: I have an idea why this fix works but I’m not sure and I haven’t gotten a straight answer from anyone on the matter… so do me a favor and don’t ask because all I can tell you is that it does work to eliminate noise coming in through the antenna. Take about 6 feet of the Feed line and wrap it into 6 or 8 loops (kind of like wrapping up an electrical cord or piece of rope but about the diameter of a coffee can) then tape the loops together.
If an antenna choke doesn’t successfully eliminate all noise, there are other methods to try. Try changing the location of your antenna to a spot on the vehicle where it is shielded from the engine. Radio waves are line of sight reception and sometimes simply hiding the antenna from the constant oscillation of the engine can do the trick. Another method is to try using shorter or longer lengths of coax… but that is an expensive exercise in trial and error… try the other methods first.

Hot Wire Noise
First off, try attaching the hot wire(s) for the radio directly to the battery of the vehicle. Much of the noise picked up through the hot wire comes from the alternator feeding current into the system.
This method should work, but if not, try installing an external noise filter onto the hot wire and ground wire of your CB. They are small cylinders (about the size of a bicycle handle) and can be picked up at Radio Shack or other electronics stores. Simply attach the hot wire(s) from the radio to the red wire of the filter, then the red wire on the other side of the filter to a power source. Attach the ground wire from the radio to the black wire on the filter, then the black wire on the other side of the filter to a chassis ground.

These techniques should help you set up a radio properly, even if you run into difficulties. It may take some time and trouble shooting on your part but you’ll be left with minimal noise and decent reception/transmission capabilities. The cost shouldn’t be too bad either. It all can be done for under $150 with new equipment. But if your budget allows, spend more [for the best equipment available].

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Letter Re: An Inexpensive Source for Bulk Silica Gel Desiccant

Hi, James
There is always a need for desiccants for various uses, be it food storage, caching, or other projects. Most who need such things already have a favorite supplier, but I'll make another recommendation for the sake of saving a few bucks. Any local grocer, pet supply dealer or Big Box store carries silica-gel cat litter in amounts from 3 to 30 pounds: Tidy Cats Crystals is one such product, though there are many. A rounded tablespoon place in a square of mesh fabric purchased in a craft/hobby department (where it can be bought by the yard--think about the bird seed packets at weddings) and securely tied [or sewn shut] will work well when placed in the desired container; depending on the need, they can also be spooned directly into the bottom of the vessel. Note that I'm suggesting the clear-blue "Crystals-only" type which are pure silica; one doesn't want the silicate-clay "Blend" which is also offered.

Being silicate, they have the potential for re-use by oven drying. Compared to the cost of individual commercial [silica gel] packets, this is a bargain. Regards, - Billfour

JWR Replies: That is a great suggestion. Just beware of any desiccant that has any additives, dyes, or scents. A perfumed desiccant would be fine for tool storage, but potentially a disaster for food storage.

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Letter Re: Can I Burn Home Heating Oil or Kerosene in a Diesel Engine?

Hello Jim,
This is in response to the gentleman's question about using kerosene in diesel engines. Yes, it can be done. I had two 55 gallon drums of kerosene that were reaching the end of their storage life. I also have an old Mercedes diesel car and ran the kerosene with some added lubrication in the vehicle and it worked very well. You are correct that kerosene doesn't have the same lubrication values of diesel but that is solved by simply adding vegetable oil or biodiesel to to the fuel. I used a 10-to-1 ratio as recommended by another poster on the blog. As far as kerosene burning hotter, it has fewer BTUs per gallon than diesel so I doubt this is a problem.

This discussion brings up another advantage of diesel engines and it's a big one. That is the variety of fuels they can run on including kerosene, home heating oil and vegetable oil-new and used. Some people over at Mercedesshop.com have even used automatic transmission fluid and lightweight motor oil in their cars as well. I would only do that for a short period of time and if I were truly desperate. Several caveats apply here also. Used vegetable oil must be filtered very well or you will have serious problems. To run 100% vegetable oil ("straight vegetable oil") in cars it must have a two-tank system that heats the oil first and flushes the fuel lines with diesel when shut off or the oil will solidify in the fuel lines the car won't restart. However I would not hesitate to use 50% diesel/kerosene with 50% new vegetable oil in warm weather. All this gives you have several options if you need them. Scenario 1: There is a major fuel shortage with low supplies and long lines at the pump. With a diesel engine you can simply go to the kerosene pump and fill your cans up while everybody else waits in line. Scenario 2: You are evacuating from a [Hurricane] Katrina-like situation and begin to run low on fuel. Simply go to any grocery store and pick up several gallons of vegetable oil and dump it in. Then go to the auto parts store and grab a few quarts of ATF and motor oil and dump it in if your really low.

Again some of this I would not do unless I was truly hard pressed, but desperate times call for thinking outside the box. FYI, the drums of kerosene mentioned above are nine years old and were not stabilized (I didn't know any better at the time. However, it was in very good condition and ran well in my car. I hope that this helps someone. - Jeff in Ohio

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Odds 'n Sods:

Kirk flagged this Business Week piece: Bad Omens for Banks?--News from KeyCorp suggests U.S. banks' loan losses may worsen. Is the credit crisis hitting a second, even scarier phase? The global credit crisis is worsening. Take steps to protect yourself.

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Thanks to Dave S. for sending this: US rail network facing congestion 'calamity'

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My recent mention of health concerns about synthetic sweeteners (such as Nutrasweet and Splenda) prompted readers Chris D., Kim, and EMW to all remind me to mention the herbal sweetener, Stevia rebaudiana. It is a safe, natural sweetener derived from a plant that is native to Paraguay. Following enactment of the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act (DSHEA), Stevia can be sold legally in the United States only as a "dietary supplement." Ironically, even though ounce-for-ounce Stevia extracts can be up to 300 times more sweet than sugar, they cannot be sold as "sweeteners." OBTW, reader Rick C. mentioned that "Splenda is not aspartame-based [like Nutrasweet]. It consists of sucralose and maltodextrin." But I should add that Splenda has its own set of health concerns.

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Frequent news tip contributor RBS sent us this: George Soros: 'We face the most serious recession of our lifetime'

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Regardless of the size or quality of defensive forces, the defender usually extracts large costs from the attacker in time, resources, and casualties." - Military Operations on Urbanized Terrain (MOUT) MCWP 3-35.3

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Sunday June 1 2008
Note from JWR:

The judging was difficult because we had so many great entries. But after much deliberation we decided that the first place winner of Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is KLK for her article "How To Prepare for Radiation Emergencies". She has won two valuable four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!)

Second place goes to B.H. for his article "Safe Food Handling". He will receive a copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing

Three Honorable Mention prizes go to NC Bluedog for "Homestead Fuel Storage and Rotation", JLG in Texas for "Technology After TEOTWAWKI"., and to Gospel Guy for "Lacto-Fermentation--Enlisting Trillions of Microscopic Allies in Your Fight for Survival." They each get their choice of autographed copies of either my books "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation" or "SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog"

Note to the prize winners: E-mail me and let me know the snail mail address where you'd like you prizes sent. Congratulations to the talented prize-winning writers!

Round 17 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is now open. Round 17 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

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Letter Re: An Importer's Insights on the Canned Tuna Market

Hi James
I am in the import food business and one of the products that I sell is canned tuna. I know that a lot of survivalists have canned tuna in their larder and thought I might be able to provide some useful information. There are four species of tuna that are sold in cans; skipjack, tongol, yellowfin and albacore. Skipjack is the cheapest and Albacore the most expensive.

I have been selling tuna for about 20 years and over the last two years, have seen the raw material prices double. Normally, prices go up and then back down, as the catch decreases and then increases. However, since there are really no controls on the amount of tuna that are caught, I have been concerned about over fishing, especially with skipjack as it is the every day item that supermarkets sell as chunk light tuna. Given that the frozen fish price has increased from about $1,000 per metric ton to just under $2,000 per metric ton, I think that we may
have hit the point where demand will outpace a diminishing supply. I expect retail prices to continue increasing.

When I was at a Costco [warehouse store] a couple of weeks ago, I noticed that they are still selling 6 ounce albacore for around $1.00 per can. This is a very good price and I don't expect it to
last for long.

The other thing that has been happening is that many of our overseas suppliers are having trouble getting empty cans. We have had many shipments of fruits and vegetables delayed because the packers have the raw material, but no cans to pack the product in. I know that there have been increases in tinplate costs, but do not know why some of our suppliers are unable to get cans. It could be that they don't want to pay the higher prices.

Given the decline of the [purchasing power of the] dollar, increases in freight rates, as well as inflation in other countries, I see many food prices continuing to climb indefinitely. All the best, - Kurt P.

JWR Replies: Thanks for the update. SurvivalBlog readers should plan accordingly. If you haven't done so already, buy a three year supply of canned tuna for your family, post haste!

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Letter Re: Physical Gold Versus Electronic Gold

Mr Rawles,
The letter from the gent who recommends investing in synthetic gold startled me. Prior to the Great Depression my family was very wealthy. My great-great grandfather, was an assemblyman from New York State who [had] moved to the backwoods of Pennsylvania and built what was at one time the largest tannery on the east coast. The family also owned a large hotel, at least two other tanneries, a general store and a gristmill. When his son took over the reins of the family wealth he invested the bulk of it in silver stock. When the stock market crashed the family was plunged into stark poverty. My great grandfather had to build a home for his family out of the packing crates that the produce for the store was shipped in. Stock [or shares] of any kind are dangerous if that is where the bulk of a person's wealth is invested.

Make your readers aware of how dangerous the financial situation is at this time and to steer clear of investing in anything that you cannot hold in your hands, or eat or walk on or wear. Thank you. - DM from the Mountains of Northwest Pennsylvania

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Letter Re: A Combustion Temperature Reference

Hello James:
I came across these ignition temperatures in a reference book and thought they might be of use to others,. This may be useful for whatever folks may be doing with flammable materials or fuels at their retreat or at home. All ignition temperatures noted are in Fahrenheit:

Cut Newspaper 446 degrees
Cut filter paper 450 degrees
Straw and sawdust 450 to 500 degrees
Gasoline 536 to 800 degrees depending on octane rating
Kerosene 480 degrees
Natural Gas 1,000 to 1,200 degrees
Propane 871 degrees
Butane 806 degrees
Paints and Lacquers (the flammable part isn't the pigment, although the metallic chromate pigments are flammable) 475 to 1,000 degrees
Amyl Acetate 715 degrees
Acetone 1,000 degrees
Linseed Oil 650 degrees
Mineral Spirits 473 degrees
Turpentine 464 degrees
Alcohols 750 to 900 degrees
Petroleum Naptha 475 degrees
Magnesium 1,204 degrees, but if material is finely ground then as low as 900 degrees

Regards, - Mikael

JWR Adds this Strong Proviso: Reader Jim. H. in Colorado has pointed out that the full potential fire hazards of stored materials should not be evaluated according to the preceding chart. The chart was based on direct contact of a solid material with a heat source. The true measurement of the volatility of a stored material is its "flash point", which in most cases is considerably lower than the figures noted. It is explained at this Wikipedia page. Essentially, Mikael's chart was correct. Any of those material that are heated to those temperatures will combust (without the presence of any flame). However, the essential definition is: "The flash point of a material is the point at which the material will give off gasses that, when mixed with oxygen, can support combustion if exposed to an outside heat source."

Also note that combustible gasses, dusts, and vapors (such as gasoline vapors) can sometimes travel long distances and still be combustible or explosive. Over the years, SurvivalBlog has stressed safety, particularly with stored fuels. I've written this a dozen times, but this bears repeating: Stored liquid fuels should never be stored in a typical attached garage. Most suburban garages also have a natural gas-fired or propane-fired hot water heater with a continuous pilot flame. That is a very dangerous combination of a vapor source and vapor ignition. Read: Kaboom!

Also beware of any processing operation that produces combustible dust, such as grain milling or even metal grinding. There have been countless news stories over the years about grain mill explosions. As I illustrated my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse", ounce-for-ounce, fuel-air mixtures can be some of the most potent explosives imaginable.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Bill from Ohio sent this: Hunger Prompting Desperate Acts

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Reader David D. mentioned this article by Ellen Brown: The Secret Bailout of JP Morgan. One is naturally led to ask: Cui bono?

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Elisha R. mentioned a handy state of Texas PDF on rainwater catchment

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CDR sent us this link: China quake survivors scavenge amid the ruins--They search for scrap metal to sell so they can buy food for their families

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"JP Morgan has assets of $1.6 trillion and equity of $126 billion. They seem reasonably well-capitalized at 7.6%. We just hope that there's no problems in their almost $92 trillion derivative exposure that is more than 50 times their assets and, more importantly, greater than 700 times their equity. We hope them to be well-matched, but if they are even the tiniest bit wrong, their equity could be wiped out as their equity represents just 0.13% of their gross derivative exposure." - Steven Romick, writing in Agora Financial's Rude Awakening e-newsletter, May, 2008

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Saturday May 31 2008
Letter Re: Physical Gold Versus Electronic Gold

Dear Mr. Rawles:
You are clearly (and presciently) on the record as recommending the purchase of precious metals, ahead of the current inflationary cycle. Congratulations on that excellent macro call. But I believe you also recommend holding the physical commodity rather than synthetic ownership through an exchange traded fund/note. This makes less sense to me.

As an economic hedge against fiat currency deflation, synthetic gold has lower transaction costs since you don’t have to pay for the transport of the gold, the retail broker markup, or the non-gold coinage aspects of value that are embedded into Krugerrand, Maple Leaf, and American Eagle. Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) like the iShares Comex Trust typically charge a modest expense ratio of 0.4% per year to pay for storage and other fund costs, and gold ETFs are backed dollar-for-dollar by physical gold. Synthetic gold can be instantaneously bought and sold, and easily transferred into different currencies or across borders, with a few keystrokes.

Synthetic gold is also safer. If you own physical gold, you have to guard against theft and other loss. You could insure against this risk, but then the cost of insurance (which is quite high for precious metals) will be a material drag on your returns. I suppose one could argue that synthetic gold is exposed to extraordinarily unlikely events such as a nuclear exchange with a resulting EMP that wipes the digital record of your ownership—although I am not even sure that is correct because of redundant, multi-location data backup—but if that is the principal risk you’re trying to guard against, relocation to the Australian outback would seem more sensible (i.e., you have bigger worries than inflation).

It is true that physical gold, in a SHTF situation, would have value as an instrument of barter, whereas synthetic gold would not. However as an instrument of barter, physical gold has tremendous limitations. First, the instrument is not easily divisible, and if you were trying to barter with 1 ounce coins, it could be a bit like trying to buy things with a $100 bill and nobody being able to make change. Second, in a SHTF situation, because your barter counterparty would likely have problems establishing authenticity and weight, you would be charged a discount to value by him/her. In a nutshell, if physical gold’s bartering qualities are what attract you, I would propose that owning other commodities like coffee, cartridges, salt, etc. would be more effective.

My own view is that physical gold combines the worst of all worlds, given the risks that a reasonably prudent (but less than apocalyptic) survivalist should be considering. I’m curious about your view. - DC

JWR Replies: In precious metals investing, there is a continuum of risk that ranges from negligible risk to maximum risk. To my way of thinking, the "near end" of this continuum starts with the gold in your teeth and it terminates with highly leveraged futures contracts at the far end. Electronic gold is somewhere in between, and probably closer to the "safe" end, in normal times. However, since much of my thinking is geared toward some unpleasant "what ifs", I err on the side of caution. I realize that I'm foregoing the convenience of electronic gold, but being a survivalist dinosaur, I want my metals in hand, if at all possible.

As a preparedness-minded individual, I am relatively risk adverse, and I suspect that the majority of SurvivalBlog readers share my outlook. I recommend buying physical silver, stored very well hidden at home. See the SurvivalBlog archives for some recommendations on wall caches and other secret hiding places.

There are indeed limitations of physical gold in barter as you mentioned (and as I illustrated in the "For An Ounce of Gold" chapter of my novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse"). Recognizing that, my approach has been to encourage my readers to buy and hold a core holding of silver coins, for barter. Pre-1965 mint date US circulated 90% silver coins are widely recognized and have small unit values that makes them ideal for barter transactions.

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Letter Re: Can I Burn Home Heating Oil or Kerosene in a Diesel Engine?

James:
Your article today about diesel vehicles still providing long term cost savings was quite interesting. The question I have, and perhaps [shared by] some of your readers is this: is home heating oil and kerosene acceptable fuel for a diesel engine? - Thanks, - Jim G.

JWR Replies: Home heating oil burns fine in any diesel engine, but in may countries it is not legal to do so in a vehicle that is driven on public roads. This is a "road tax" issue. Aside for a red dye additive, the formulation of home heating oil is almost identical to the diesel that was made before the recent advent of Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (ULSD). The only significant difference between the two is the Federal standard on ash content.

Kerosene is a different matter. Kerosene has insufficient lubricity to be used just by itself in a diesel engine. I have also read that it burns hotter than diesel, so it might harm injectors. However, this is largely a non-issue in all but exceptional circumstances, since kerosene typically sells for as as much as one dollar more per gallon than diesel. But in an an emergency, it is presumably safe to mix as much as 20% kerosene with your diesel and not cause excessive engine wear. And, BTW, the aforementioned road tax is also an issue for kerosene.

To explain the road tax: In the US, Canada, the UK, and several other countries it is not legal to use dyed (untaxed) fuel in a vehicle that is driven on public roads. Of course if you are using the fuel in a generator set, or in an off-road vehicle such as a tractor, you can't be accused of cheating on the road tax. The two types of diesel fuel are distinguished by the dye additive. In the US, there is no dye added to road-taxed diesel. Enforcement of these statutes varies widely, but the fines can be substantial, so stay legal.

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Odds 'n Sods:

From reader RBS: Buffett sees "long, deep" U.S. recession

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Mike W. sent us a link to a piece written by one of my heroes, Dr. Walter E. Williams: False prophets of doom--Environmentalists would prefer that we forget these predictions

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I was doing some web surfing, and a stumbled into a great collection of photos of Swiss bunkers.

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While the Novovirus threat is subsiding with warmer weather, Rourke sent us an article about a new threat, a bacteria called C-diff: Gut superbug causing more illnesses, deaths

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Unfortunately, solving our economic problems is not a simple matter of passing a law to reestablish gold or any other commodity as money. It was not the politicians, but rather the electorate that demanded the abandonment of the gold standard and the establishment of a credit-money standard. In a nation run by majority rule, unless you can convince individuals to abandon the use of government as a sword of theft, gold or any other commodity will never last as the basis for money. A gold standard is not the cause of a stable economy, it is the result of a stable economy; it is not the solution to our problem, but will be one of the consequences when a solution is found. We had a gold standard in the U.S. for over 150 years, yet it didn't prevent our current economic debacle. Establish it again, and it will be abandoned again. In fact, it may be established again just as a sly trick to restore confidence in the value of currency, since backing the dollar with gold would make people think that our problems were solved. But the problems will not be solved, not until the use of government as a method of plunder is stopped." - John Pugsley, The Alpha Strategy

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Friday May 30 2008
Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. is now at $650. This big auction is for any of you that are gun enthusiasts. It includes 17 items: A four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificate, which was kindly donated by Naish Piazza of Front Sight (worth up to $2,000), a $200 gift certificate from Choate Machine and Tool Company (the makers of excellent fiberglass stocks, folding stocks, and shotgun magazine extensions), $450+ worth of full capacity magazines from my personal collection including five scarce original Ruger-made 20 round Mini-14 magazines and five scarce 20 round Beretta M92 magazines, and an autographed copy of the book "Boston's Gun Bible." The total value of this 17 item auction lot is $2,700! (See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for details on exactly what is included.) Note: Because this auction includes full capacity magazines, no bids will be accepted from outside of the US or from a resident of any state with magazine restrictions. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on June 15th.

The following article is the final entry for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 17 of the writing contest begins on June 1st, so get busy!

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Some Preparations that You Might Have Overlooked, by Tim G.

Some of the things I will mention might have been covered before, but it never hurts to mention them again. Some readers might have missed them.

I can tell you from experience that people will tease you about your preparations, but when something happens they will come calling. My own brother borrowed my new-in-box chainsaw and my [12 VDC] jump starting [battery pack] to light up the area so that he could saw in hours of darkness. I told him to keep the jump pack charged. Several months later I got the chainsaw and jump pack back. The saw will not start and the battery is dead in the jump pack. I just held my tongue. They are only possessions. But it goes to show how stuff loaned out gets treated.

I did have a real cool setup until about six years ago when a water leak turned into a [household] mold. When the mold showed up we were told to immediately evacuate. We left with just the clothes on our backs. The second company yanked everything in the house out leaving just a shell. This took several months. We had been told it would only take two weeks. In meantime insurance company didn’t pay anyone. So a second company took all our stuff. When it was returned, we found that many items had been pilfered. After six years, our lawyer finally told us to settle but this never covered all our losses. Now we have several judgments against us. God has watched over us. We had a roof over our head and food on our plate. I'm telling this story to show how you never know what can happen.

We had a year supply of mt house food from nitro-pak, a great company. Second company took it to their warehouse where not environment controlled heat up to a 100 degrees F and cool down to 10 degrees F.

I had a three-way generator [carburetor] set up. This is a little more expensive, but it gives you options. The carburetor can use propane or natural gas or gasoline. I had it set for propane. I had a 500-gallon tank put in the back yard and a line run tom genset. With this setup, you can store more fuel, and not worry too much about it going bad. It also was hooked to the main power. If needed I could throw a switch. That was for down the power line safety for anyone working on the power lines. My main concern was for the well pump. You can’t live without water.

Some things that might have been over looked are hats to wear when going to bed in the winter. If you’ve seen the older movie about Scrooge, the hat he was wearing when he went to bed wasn’t for looks. It was for keeping warm and preventing body heat loss. Remember that you lose more heat from your head than other places on your body. In the winter, when our power has gone out we do a thing I call tenting. It is where you either pull covers over your head or leave a small hole to replace air and keep in your body heat when you exhale. You can make something to go over the end of the bed if the power failure lasts longer than a few hours.

Save old bottles, there is always a use for them. Pump bottles are good if you can buy stuff in bulk, like hand sanitizer or wash. Make sure you clean the bottles out and let them dry before using. Two liter bottles can have many uses. You can cut them up and make panels to nail down and maybe make a small greenhouse. Ideas are only limited to the imagination.

You can buy hand warmers at WalMart or Sam's Club. These can come in real handy. We had a real bad ice storm and we went to my wife’s parents house because they had a fireplace. We took our dogs and some sleeping bags that were rated at 30 degrees F, plus several blankets. We were less than 10 feet from fireplace and it was cold . Most of the heat went up chimney. I opened a hand warmer, shook it and in a few minutes it was warm. I place between my knees and went right to sleep. My wife didn’t want one and was miserable all night. Guess who was also made miserable? Yep, misery loves company. She shook me awake about every hour and told me, “I’m cold get more wood on the fire.” She had both dogs with her. The hand warmers don’t have a flame or odor and are very safe to use. Depending on what brand you get, they last from 6 to 12 hours.

Condoms. I could say enough said, but they are also multipurpose. They can be put over a gun barrel to protect it. They can hold liquids as a last resort, and just about anything that you can think of.
Stuff for foods like salt and pepper. Your body needs salt, and pepper will be hard to get. Plus any other spices you might like or need. Eating the same old food everyday gets old real quickly.

Bug nets or mosquito nets. They are not just for outside use, but inside to cover your bed at night. If power is off, most likely the windows will be open to cool off the house in the summer. Bugs have a nasty way of getting in. You can inexpensively get soft netting from eBay. Some are ready-made to cover beds. At Lowe's hardware, in their door screen section, you can buy rolls of screening and make your own inside or outside net. Get the smallest mesh possible like "No-see-um" netting.

Now that things are starting to get back to normal in our lives, we are replacing everything. If you are about broke, or on a tight budget, here are some ideas. Since I can’t afford the Mountain House foods and they [presently] are not available [in #10 cans] anyway, I buy [wet-packed canned foods in the large Number 10 cans (one gallon) at the grocery store. They are date stamped and most last almost two years. I can buy most at less than four dollars a can.

Get canned meats like beef stew and corned beef hash, canned ham, Spam etc. As of today, those are dated to expire in 2011.

Stuff like powdered Gatorade or the single serve tea packs are good. Gatorade has sugar. The tea uses Splenda. Get Splenda at Sam's Club if possible because they are cheaper there compared to the grocery store prices. [JWR Adds: I have some serious concerns about Splenda and most other synthetic sugar substitutes. See the recent SurvivalBlog letter on diabetes, for details]

Other things that might be missed are razor blades and aftershave. I don’t want to shave without them. Remember that preventative care is better than acute health care(if its available.) You will need other toiletries too.

Every time you go to store pick up a few items. Getting two cans of soup here and extra toilet paper there adds up tremendously. All these items can be used to trade with. Buy in bulk when you can. At Sam's Club get the big bags of disposable razors. If people come knocking you can give them one, or trade. Sometimes acts of kindness go a long way to settle down people with an intent on harm or who are belligerent.

Don’t forget some forms of entertainment, like books for reading. The most important book is the Bible. Trust in the Lord, He will see us through. - Tim G.

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Lady Liberty Liberty Has a Hollow Core

The best known symbol of the United States is the Statue of Liberty. It was a gift from the people of France, with a framework designed by Gustave Eiffel. (Yes, the same gent that designed the Eiffel Tower.) Eiffel's Liberty statue armature design was clever, and made the statue an amazingly lightweight for a structure that towers 151 feet tall. Rather than a traditional solid masonry statue, Lady Liberty is built on a hollow framework to which copper sheets are attached. I have recently come to realize that the Statue of Liberty is a fitting symbol for the United States in this new century. We are now a hollow nation.

In the past 30 years our manufacturing infrastructure has been gutted. Countless industries have moved their manufacturing offshore. Political commentator Patrick J. Buchanan summed it up well in a 2003 article for The American Conservative:

"Across America the story is the same: steel and lumber mills going into bankruptcy; textile plants moving to the Caribbean, Mexico, Central America, and the Far East; auto plants closing and opening overseas; American mines being sealed and farms vanishing. Seven hundred thousand textile workers—many of them minorities and single women—have lost their jobs since NAFTA passed in 1993."

The following are a few random observations that illustrate just how hollow our nation has become::

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the home of the "Steelers" football team now produces precious little steel. Steel production went into steep decline in the 1970s and has never recovered. The big Pittsburgh steel companies can't compete with foreign steel, some of which is state-subsidized. Sadly, the decline that starting in the 1970s has continued. The state of Pennsylvania lost another 202,000 manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2007.

Ironically, many inventions that either originated in the US, or that were co-developed here are no longer produced in significant numbers, or even produced at all. These include the sewing machine and the television.

With each passing year, imported automobiles have gained market share in the US. The recent spike in fuel prices will make small imported cars even more popular.

The loss of American manufacturing and simultaneous increase in imports has led to some absurdities. Just try to find a pair of American-made tennis shoes in sizes for children. It seems that 95% of the tennis shoes are made in mainland China, and the rest are made in other Asian countries like Malaysia.

One of our advertisers, Wiggy's, is one the last remaining handful of sleeping bag manufacturers that has a factory in the US. Nearly all of their competitors have switched to having bags with their label made offshore.

Even trucks and heavy equipment are getting foreign competition. A decade ago, seeing a foreign-made heavy truck was a rarity. But now, it is not unusual to see A truck made by Volvo. I'm also starting to notice more Asian-built excavators, even here in the "Buy American" heartland.

America is also suffering from a loss of technological leadership. This has led to the so-called "Geek Gap". In another decade, China and India will no longer be dependent on US innovation. They will be the technological leaders.

Our dependence on imported oil has only worsened since the 1970s. If an OPEC oil embargo were to happen today, it would be devastating.

Roads, bridges, and tunnels in poor repair. Freeways designed in the 1950s and 1906s are now insufficient for current traffic flows, causing traffic delays that hinder economic efficiency.

Six decades ago, we helped win the Second World War because of our manufacturing strength. Given the decline in US manufacturing, I doubt that we could duplicate that feat. The erosion of the US defense manufacturing base is troubling. If supplies of foreign-made components were to be disrupted, we would be hard pressed to build many high technology weapons systems. I wrote about this trend when I was on the staff of Defense Electronics magazine in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Since then, our reliance on imported parts--particularly microcircuits and LEDs--has increased considerably. I'm talking not just about competitiveness. I'm talking about physical survival as a nation. If we have to fight a protracted major war--something similar to the Second World War--we might just lack supplies of the requisite little "fiddly bits". Too many of them are imported.

Ditto for raw materials. In the 1970s and 1980s, the US Department of Defense (DOD) created a $6.5 billion strategic stockpile program, which set aside "440,000 troy ounces of platinum, 8,500 tons of chromium, 129,000 tons of natural rubber, 47 million pounds of cobalt and more than 5 million carats of diamonds." But since the end of the Cold war, there have been calls to sell the stockpile off as "obsolete" since it would be a great "cost saving measure". Some claim that all that is needed is to set aside $24 million worth of iridium, tantalum and quartz crystal. What madness. Without tech strategic reserve there is no way that we could fight a major war that involved the disruption of shipping and air transport. There is no way, whatsoever.

Clearly, something has to change if the US is going to remain competitive in manufacturing and retain its ability to fight a protracted war. I'm not calling for government-mandated protectionism. I'm just suggesting that the "Buy American" ethic needs to be renewed. Look at labels before you make a purchase. Buy American when when you can. And if a particular item is not domestically made, then buy used items instead of new. (Typically, the older items are American made, but in any case you at least won't be sending more cash offshore.)

In many ways, The United States is entering an era that is analogous to what happened to Spain, in the waning days of their empire. Like the US is today, they were essentially a naval power. They got involved in some overseas adventures that in the long run were not profitable, using lots of borrowed money. When their credit ran out, they were forced to scale back drastically. Spain was eventually relegated to the status of a third rate power. But I should mention that in their case, their timing was particularly bad. Spain was starved of credit just as the industrial revolution was getting underway. So they essentially "missed the boat" on industrialization.

In summary, we are indeed now a hollow nation. As individuals with an interest in preparedness, we need to recognize that. At the personal level, we need to mitigate the risks that the dependence on imports has created. We should stock up, and do our best to Buy American, as we do so. We also need to recognize the macro level economic instability that the trade deficit and dependence on foreign financing have created. Be ready for a deep, long recession or even a depression. A sharp economic decline is very likely coming, and coming soon.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Reader RBS found us this: Five Foods That Are Cheaper to Grow

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RBS also found this in a Hawaiian newspaper: Gasoline thieves cutting fuel lines

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Red Cross warns of food riots over soaring prices. (A hat tip to Bill in Ohio.)

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"I Told You So" Department: Washington Mutual - One of the Nations Largest Banks Having Trouble. (We mentioned potential margin call problems at WaMu, back on March 16th.) There are bank runs coming.

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"Cowboy" found this article that ties in with the recent letter on Treet brand canned meat: Sales of Spam rise as consumers trim food costs

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Man is not free unless government is limited...
As government expands, liberty contracts." - Ronald Reagan

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Thursday May 29 2008
Note from JWR:

The following is another article for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

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Considerations for Raising Chickens After TEOTWAWKI, by Gospel Guy

Successfully raising chickens after TEOTWAWKI has a few important differences from raising chickens during normal conditions in the developed world. Changes in the availability of feed, day old chicks, and increased pressure from predators and thieves are the most likely factors to precipitate failure for many people who think they understand chickens, but are not prepared for these challenges. This article addresses the adjustments that must be made to successfully raise chickens after TEOTWAWKI.

Sustained reproduction of the flock should be the primary focus of the survivalist who wishes to ensure a supply of eggs and meat into the future. In order to maintain reproduction the flock must have a nutrient rich high protein diet. Under current conditions in the developed world obtaining an adequate diet for your flock is as simple as a visit to a trusted feed mill. However the survivalist needs a different solution as prepared chicken feed does not store well. Commercial feed goes rancid quickly, often in as little as two months, particularly if the feed contains extruded soy beans.
The best choice in storage feed for chickens is feed grade whole yellow corn or sorghum, whole oats, wheat and Azomite, a mineral supplement. Azomite is a highly regarded natural mineral product which is economical and suitable for use in livestock feed, as a soil amendment and a tonic for humans. The survivalist who is committed to the long-term survival of his poultry should store a one or two year supply of feed and seed to plant future crops of grain. Seed corn does not store well and germination rates decline rapidly. Annual rotation of the open-pollinated seed corn is strongly recommended. Some farmers in living in primitive and very remote areas of the third world store a two year supply of seed corn. Each year they plant their oldest stock of seed corn and replace the seed they planted when they harvest the new crop. This is a sound technique which encourages the trait of longer seed viability and at the same time ensures a reserve of seed in the event of a crop failure.

In order to economically meet the protein requirements of the flock’s diet, allow them to free range, use portable pasture pens or feed insects to the birds. The biggest problem with allowing chickens to roam free is the high, often devastating losses to theft and predators. It would be possible to feed soybeans for the protein and fat values they offer. However soybeans must be roasted or otherwise cooked before use as feed to deactivate growth inhibiting substances in the soybean. This additional step is labor intensive and therefore the use of soybeans is not recommended. Raising insects for your flock can be done easily with either earth worms or fly larva otherwise know as maggots. There are ample resources detailing earthworm production available elsewhere and so we will not examine this subject in depth here, in the attached supplement are directions for a controversial technique for producing fly larva under difficult conditions. Under normal or favorable conditions allowing chickens to scratch through compost, a manure pile or deep bedding will supply the protein needs of the chicken.

The final key to producing fertile eggs that will result in acceptable hatching rates is adequate vitamins. In most cases the best solution is to use portable grazing pens to allow the birds to eat all the grass and weeds they can. Two of the more common designs are wood framed “Salatin Pens” and portable hoop houses. The portable hoop house offers the advantages of easier access to the interior and welded construction with a light weight steel frame. A 10’ x 15’ hoop house is an easy to manage size. It is also helpful to soak or germinate grain before feeding in order to increase the vitamin content of the grain. It is best to feed the germinated seed while the sprouts are the same length as the seed.

Once your flock is eating a nutritious diet keep your eyes open for a hen exhibiting interest in nesting. It is best to have several experienced hens or female turkeys for hatching eggs. There is a learning curve both for the survivalist and the hen. The hen must have a safe place at a comfortable temperature with food and water available at all times and which is inaccessible to the other hens. Other hens will chase the setting hen off the nest to lay their eggs there unless they are denied access. There are several advantages to using a turkey for hatching eggs. In the first place the turkey can sit on more eggs than a hen can. Secondly a turkey can defend her nest and chicks far more aggressively than a chicken. A hen turkey will often give a beating to a curious dog or any other intruder that she sees as threat to her chicks. Also a hen turkey will not allow any other hen to peck or bully her chicks the way many non-dominate hens will, she is the biggest bird in the flock and demands respect for her chicks. As a result the mortality rate of hen turkey raised chicks is often lower than when raised by a hen. One consideration with a hen turkey is that she walks and runs faster and further than a hen will. In order to reduce stress and avoid over exertion of the new chicks it is advisable to use a hoop house or other pen to restrict the movement of the hen turkey and her chicks.
Within 24 hours of hatching the chicks should be offered food and water. Be very careful to insure that the watering pan is chick safe and will not be likely to drown or trap chicks. The chicks will readily eat crumbs and scraps from your table along with freshly ground coarse cornmeal, Azomite and finely chopped liver if available. They should have small gravel and sand available for grit. As the chicks grow they will be able to handle cracked and then whole grains. Sorghum and wheat are smaller and easier to swallow than corn and oats.

In primitive conditions the pressure from predators is frequently greater than in more modern situations. It quickly becomes obvious that everyone likes to eat chickens and their eggs; that includes neighbors, dogs, coyotes, house cats, rats, possums, coon, snakes, hawks and skunks. The protection that portable grazing pens offer is the first line of defense against predators and thieves. Dogs that are bonded with chickens and other small livestock are very helpful but you must back them up with traps and a gun. One of the most effective traps for feral dogs, possum and skunk is a Connibear trap in front of a bucket with bait in the bottom. It is very important not to set any of the larger Connibear traps where a small child could get in the trap as the 220 and larger connibears may kill or seriously injure a child. It is advisable to have a gun handy when caring for the flock because it is virtually assured that sooner or later it will be necessary to terminate the depredations of a feral dog or other varmint.

In summary there are challenges involved in raising chickens under primitive conditions after TEOTWAWKI. However with a little foresight and planning chickens can be a productive source of high quality protein, even under difficult circumstances. Supplement: Insect protein for challenging conditions.

Harsh dry conditions may make the common sources of insect protein unavailable. A prolonged drought can almost completely eliminate available insect life and turn compost in to lifeless piles of bone dry organic matter. In many tropical and sub-tropical climates with a dry season and monsoon such events happen every year. The end of the dry season becomes a time of suffering as the water sources dry up. Insects disappear and egg production all but ceases at the time additional food is needed most. Children become malnourished, sicken and die, when an egg a day would have saved their lives.

Cultivating fly larva on animal carcasses is one controversial technique that produces an abundance of fly larva under the worst of drought conditions. Under no circumstances is the production of maggots from poultry carcasses or offal recommended due to the risk of disease and parasite transmission. To produce fly larva simply throw any healthy animals or animal parts you do not wish to eat in a barrel with a scavenger proof lid on it, feral dogs are ideal candidates. At times it may be necessary to add a few cups of water as needed to keep things from drying out. This process stinks but produces a steady stream of fly larva, which when fed to the hens are converted into an abundant supply of eggs.

It is important to not allow the chickens to eat the decomposing flesh from which you are producing the larva due to the risk of food poisoning or disease transmission. The simplest method for separating the flesh and larva is to install a grate a foot above the bottom of the barrel. The carcasses remain above the grate but the larva fall through into the bottom of the barrel. By cutting a couple openings large enough to provide access to the larva a very low maintenance scavenger proof self serve feeder is created.

Several advantages are realized by feeding the larva to the chickens rather than directly feeding the animal flesh. First, insects of all types are a natural food for chickens. Second, the risk of disease transmission is greatly reduced by preventing direct contact between the chickens and the animal parts. Third, larva are a very low cost source of protein. Even in the best of times the protein component of poultry feed is costly, during a severe drought it may be completely unavailable. Fourth, by attracting flies to lay their eggs in the feeder and feeding all resulting larva to the chickens the local fly population is reduced thereby reducing the risk of transmitting fly-borne diseases to humans. Fifth, raising fly larva for poultry feed is a traditional solution to the problem of finding sufficient protein for a flock of chickens under difficult conditions. Other methods of obtaining protein for the flock are preferable but under extreme famine conditions this is a valid solution.

About the Author:
"Gospel Guy" has gardened and cared for chickens since childhood, and has raised pastured poultry commercially. For the last three years he has raised chickens for his family’s use just outside a small town in the mountains of a Third World country where he is a Christian missionary of the reformed tradition. One of his favorite ways to relax is watching chickens forage and play. His planning for TEOWAWKI is geared toward preserving knowledge and culture through a multi-generational societal collapse in the tradition of the monasteries of the dark ages. If you appreciate the author’s work, please thank him by collecting and preserving books, art and music.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Paul from Kentucky sent this: Pioneers show Americans how to live "off-grid"

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John in Ohio flagged this: Diesels [Still] Equal Savings. The article didn't mention the price differential between road-taxed diesel and "off road " diesel. Currently, off-road (dyed) diesel sells for about 50 cents less per gallon than the road-taxed variety. That makes a big difference for those of us that store diesel for tractors and diesel generators.

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I spotted this article linked at Drudge: US home prices drop at sharpest rate in 20 years. I predict this downward spiral will continue for at least four years.

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SurvivalBlog reader "Tanker" noticed that the US Federal Reserve is continuing to increase the size of its now ongoing Term Auction Facility (TAF) liquidity-pumping frenzy. Check out the figure at the bottom of the "Non-borrowed" column! That is a lot of money created out of thin air. The global credit crunch is far from over.

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation then by deflation, the banks and the corporations will grow up around them, will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." - Thomas Jefferson, from the debate on the recharter of the Bank Bill, (1809)

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Wednesday May 28 2008
America's Frontier Counties--One Man's "Frontier" is Another Man's Suburbia

In 1890, the US Census Bureau made its pronouncement that America's western "frontier" was closed.

One television program that the Memsahib really enjoys re-watching now and again is the PBS series Frontier House. That led to a discussion of when the frontier officially closed. While researching that, I stumbled into the National Center for Frontier Communities web site. They have a very loose "by consensus" definition of what defines a "frontier" county. This map shows the absurdity of their definition. I suspect that they made the definition loose, so that participants can qualify for government grants. If you look at the Year 2000 US Census data, it is a far better gauge of who actually lives in truly remote rural counties. For example, in California, only 2% of the population lives in frontier counties, but in Wyoming the figure is 73.9%.

The generally accepted threshold for "Frontier" population density is six or fewer people per square mile. But to this day, there is no official definition of what "frontier" means. By my definition, less than 100 counties in the Lower 48 States could still be considered truly "frontier."

So here are some of my subjective estimations of what constitutes a present-day frontier county:

When a tree falls down across the county road you don't even bother calling the county road department. You just get out your chainsaw.

You know the names of all of the neighbors in a five mile radius.

A shopping trip sometimes requires buying more than one tank of gasoline.

There won't be cellular service in your area for another 5 or 10 years, but nobody really wants it, for fear that it will attract yuppie land buyers.

Nearly every conversation includes the phrase "Get 'er done!", and nobody thinks that its a humorous reference.

The only factor that keeps you from having the lowest car insurance rate in the nation is the high number of deer collisions

Your friends' most closely guarded secrets are the locations of their favorite fishing holes and berry patches.

The nearest grocery store also sells fishing bait, propane, ammo, Ivermectin paste, and T-posts.

One out of every five vehicles that you pass on the highway is a quad ATV.

The standard greeting for two months of each year for men, women, and children is: "Hi! Did you get your elk yet?"

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Letter Re: An Oil Extraction Press that Could Prove Useful at Retreats

Sir,
Though this PDF starts out explaining how to make "briquettes" for cooking fuel, it eventually shows a crude oil extraction press. This could be a handy tool for supplementing one's diet with vegetable and nut oils and also for making biodiesel (or for use in a Straight Vegetable Oil powered engine). Regards, - Hawaiian K.

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Letter Re: The Northwestern US as a Retreat Locale--the Downwind Issues

Hello;
We are on board with what is coming. Regarding location, my concern for the Idaho and Montana areas are the Yellowstone caldera - should it have a massive eruption and being downwind from the Seattle area should there be a nuke attack there. What are your thoughts, please? Thank you - John

JWR Replies: All of Idaho is upwind of Yellowstone except for during the most unusual weather conditions. Ditto for any parts of Montana where you would likely want to live. This is because anywhere that is east (downwind) of Yellowstone is also potentially downwind of the Montana missile fields. (Headquartered at Malmstrom Air Force Base near Great Falls, but dispersed across an area of several hundred square miles.).

As for your mention of the anticipated fallout from targets like Seattle and Bremerton, essentially the only portion of the continental US that is not downwind of a potential nuclear target is California's northern coast (from Mendocino County northward), and southwestern Oregon. And even people living there have to worry about residual fallout from nuclear strikes in Asia. The bottom line is that every family in the US should have a fallout shelter. And some families that live near anticipated nuclear targets need a combination fallout and blast shelter.

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"The reflection upon my situation and that of this army produces many an uneasy hour when all around me are wrapped in sleep. Few people know the predicament we are in." - General George Washington, January 14, 1776

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Tuesday May 27 2008
Letter Re: Advice on a Budget Water Filter

Mr. Rawles,
I just graduated from college this month and am still under the huge weight of college loans. I want to get prepared, but my budget (for now, at least), is very tight. You said that water should be the highest priority. I agree with the wisdom of that. I'd like to buy a [gravity ceramic] Big Berky [water] filter, but they are way too expensive. Even an Aqua Rain [filter] would be too much of an expense. Are there any lower cost alternatives for water filtration? Thank You, - R.T.D.

JWR Replies: The least expensive option is to make your own filter. In my experience, the much-touted field-expedient sand and clay filters are only effective for use as a pre-filter. Their output still has a brown-tinged pond water look to it, and since the filter media is so coarse, they do not remove all harmful bacteria. (So their output still has to be treated either chemically, or by boiling.) You can, however, buy Berky filter white ceramic filter elements by themselves from a number of vendors including Ready Made Resources and Lehman's. With these elements, you can build your own bargain basement "Berky Clone". This consists of a pair of food grade plastic buckets, stacked one above the other. The top bucket has one or more holes drilled in it, to accept the Berky spare filter elements. Each element by itself costs around $40 . To get decent volume production from your filter, I recommend that you buy at least two elements. (A set of four is best.)

Materials:

4 - Food Grade HDPE food storage buckets (three to six gallon capacity), with lids
1 to 4 - Big Berky White Ceramic Filter Elements

Construction:

Drill one to four 1/2-inch diameter holes near the bottom-center of the upper bucket. (The same number of holes as you have filter elements.) Space the holes at least two inches apart and no closer than 1-1/2 inches from the edge of the bucket perimeter.With clean hands (to avoid contaminating the filter pores), insert the filters in the holes, screwing down their nuts on the bottom of the upper bucket. The nuts are plastic, so do not over-tighten them. But they must be tight enough to compress the o-ring seal, or the seal may leak--and this would be a contaminating leaks. (The filters point upward into the upper bucket, to avoid damage and to allow them to be cleaned periodically.)

Using a jig saw, cut a 7-1/2-inch diameter hole in the center of the lid of the lower bucket.

A third bucket is used to carry water. The fourth bucket is used as a pre-filter. This has a piece of tightly-woven cloth that is wired or taped over the top. Since the cloth will be saturated and will drip over the edge the pre-filtering step is best done outdoors, or in a large laundry sink. If treating river, stream on pond water, be sure to use a pre-filter. Just using a couple of thickness of T-shirt material will greatly extend the useful life of your secondary filter element(s).

Use:

Set the bucket with the hole in the lid on a low, stable surface. Stack the bucket with the filter element(s) on top of it. Gently pour pre-filtered water into the upper bucket, until it is nearly full. Note: Be very careful not to spill any water down the exterior of the upper bucket, or you will contaminate the water in the bucket beneath. This is a slow filtering process, so be patient. Even with four filter elements, it will take a considerable time to filter six gallons.

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Letter Re: A Clash of World Views--Socialism Versus the Libertarian Ethic

Mr Rawles,
I have been a survival blog reader for over a year now, and my hat is off to you, sir. "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse", and the information presented on these pages have been extremely positive influences in my planning and preparations. While I have been, to this point, content to absorb the wealth of knowledge presented here, I was compelled by a recent post to submit this correspondence.

In [the letter posted on Sunday] titled "Clash of World Views”, David D. makes the claim that “We’ve had our grand experiment in deregulation and the magic of the market, and it’s now perfectly clear where it got us.” I would respectfully submit that a deregulated free market and personal responsibility are quite a bit removed from the causal factors in the current state of affairs, which is more correctly attributable to injections of “equality” and “safety nets” into what would be a self-regulating system, otherwise. Where equality is the goal, excellence is a casualty. When the incentive for achievement is removed, mediocrity and sloth are inevitable results. If excellence and success are not rewarded, but instead, the products of those efforts are forcibly redistributed by government intervention, we are enabling the parasitic existence of an exponentially growing number of non-contributing dependents. Gone, too, is the incentive to get off the dole. When receiving assistance from the charity of a neighbor, a reasonable man soon endeavors to better their condition in order to remove the requirement of outside help, and indeed, to pay back the favor in whatever way possible. When the system provides sustenance through the form of an anonymous check every month, the incentive to better one’s condition has been removed by the government “safety net”. Measures meant to protect equality and provide safety invariable hamstring the self-regulating nature of a free market, and we have, in this country, injected enough equality and safety into what started as a free market to strangle and pervert the “grand experiment” into a near unrecognizable form.

I am greatly disheartened at where we now find ourselves, so far from the intent of our founding fathers, when all men were created equal, but where they went from there was based on their own exertions, and not augmented by the social “entitlements” they were eligible for. Wise men began this endeavor in federal government with the intent to keep the entity small and out of most state affairs. With a staggering portion of the national budget now going towards entitlements, in effect, redistributing wealth, and with volumes of regulatory and mala prohibita nonsense, we are a far cry from a free market. We have long been sliding down the slippery slope into a socialist democracy where those supported by the efforts of better men have the electoral power to increase their claim to the fruits of the labor of others through votes, sympathy, and by invoking a twisted sense of social guilt. We have been legislated into chains, and each year, as our liberties are taken under the guise of stewardship, they grow heavier.

We need more people willing to take ownership of their own destiny, and fewer victims waiting for rescue. We need less regulation, more liberty, and the attendant greater personal responsibilities. Our founders meant to provide these conditions in perpetuity through the Constitution for these United States, and I truly believe that if we can undertake stripping back the perversions we have applied to their intent, this document from our past is the key to a successful future. I, for one, would welcome a world where “equality” refers to the interaction among men according to the Golden Rule, and the “safety nets” are provided by family, community, church, and charity, instead of through wasteful and overbearing government redistribution. Thanks for all you do, - D.

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Odds 'n Sods:

Jack B. recommended this piece by James Howard Kunstler: Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster

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A news headline that we've anticipated: As homes foreclose in U.S., squatters move in.

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Naish Piazza's most recent weekly blog post includes a video clip that makes it clear just how incompetent and ignorant the liberal gun grabbers are. OBTW, Naish Piazza's very generous "Get a Gun" training and gear package offer will likely end soon, since it is being run at or near cost. Don't delay!

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From an Athens, Greece newspaper: Hunger collides with oil prices. (Thanks to Jack in Texas for that link.)

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Jim's Quote of the Day:

"Every action is seen to fall into one of three main categories, guarding, hitting, or moving. Here, then, are the elements of combat, whether in war or pugilism." - Military Historian B. H. Liddell Hart

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Monday May 26 2008
Note from JWR:

The following is another article for Round 16 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The writer of the best non-fiction article will win two valuable four day "gray" transferable Front Sight course certificates. (Worth up to $4,000!) Second prize is a copy of my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, generously donated by Jake Stafford of Arbogast Publishing. Round 16 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entries. Remember that articles that relate practical "how to" skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

The author has gardened and preserved food since childhood. He has been using lacto-fermentation since 2001. For the last three years he has lived on the outskirts of a small town in the mountains of a Third World country where he is a Christian missionary in the reformed tradition. His planning for TEOTWAWKI is geared toward preserving knowledge and culture through a multi-generational societal collapse in the tradition of the monasteries of the Dark Ages. If you appreciate the author’s work, please join him in collecting and preserving books, art and music.

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Lacto-Fermentation--Enlisting Trillions of Microscopic Allies in Your Fight for Survival, by Gospel Guy

In a world with no power from the electrical grid how can perishable foods be stored? Drying and canning are common solutions but are not suitable for all foods. Canning in particular is troublesome due to its dependence on access to industrial supply chains for new lids or seals, the need for precise control of temperature and time, and its consumption of large amounts of energy. The easiest, cheapest and most overlooked method of food preservation is by lacto-fermentation which has the advantages of making the food more digestible and neither precise measurements nor exacting temperature controls are necessary. Lacto-fermentation is the intentional culture of lactic acid loving bacteria to preserve and flavor food. Lacto-fermentation is not an alcohol producing process. Rather it creates an acidic environment which is not favorable to the growth of spoilage causing organisms. Lacto-fermented foods contain large amounts of enzymes and beneficial bacterial, preserve temperature sensitive vitamins, and have a delightful tangy taste. Many people with digestive problems find that eating lacto-fermented foods frequently will provide relief. A further benefit of lacto-fermented vegetables is that when eaten on a regular basis they help to prevent diarrhea. Using lacto-fermentation yogurt, cheese, pickles, fermented vegetables and sauerkraut can all be made from materials readily available on the homestead. Foods produced by lacto-fermentation will keep for extended periods of time in a cave, root cellar, spring house, evaporative cooler or, if one is available, in the refrigerator.

The best way to begin enjoying the benefits of lacto-fermentation is by placing raw milk in a clean covered container and setting it in a warm place with a temperature in the upper 70’s or 80’s. Let the milk sit until it sours and then gets thick like yogurt, this will require from two to four days depending on the temperature and bacteria count in the milk. At this point several options present themselves:

1. Simply cool the clabbered milk and eat it with your morning oatmeal.
2. To make a very soft cream cheese similar to Neufchatel pour the clabbered milk into a cheesecloth-lined colander and drain the whey. Save the whey to use as starter for future batches of cheese, yogurt or lacto-fermented vegetables.
3. To make hard cheese heat the clabbered milk gently in a double boiler, near the chimney of the wood cook stove or other hot location until it separates into soft curds and whey. Once it begins to separate gently cut the curds into pieces using a clean knife without removing the curds from the whey. Then slowly raise the temperature until the curds and whey boil. The hotter and longer it is heated the harder the cheese will be. Pour the curds and whey into a cheese cloth-lined colander, basket or other container which will allow the whey to escape and when most of the whey has drained away salt the curds according to taste. Higher levels of salt promote better storage but many people prefer the flavor of lower salt cheeses. Set a clean rock on a plate on top of the curds wrapped in cheesecloth to compress the curds and force out the rest of the whey. The heavier the weight used to press the cheese the harder and dryer the cheese will be. The cheese can then be aged according your preference. Air drying in a screened, fly-proof, cool, breezy area to form a rind is recommended and should be followed by waxing and storage in a cool place. Variation in the technique outlined above will produce an endless variety of cheeses. The whey from the hard cheese making can be used in cooking and baking, to make drinks, or as animal feed. Chickens, pigs, dogs, and cats all love whey. Whey from hard cheese cannot be used as a starter because the beneficial bacteria were killed when the whey was heated.

Whey from the soft cheese can be used as a starter for any lacto-fermentation process. The advantage to using the whey as a starter for yogurt, cheese and lacto-fermented vegetables is that it often results in a much milder tasting and smelling product. The initial souring of the milk can occasionally result in strong odors and tastes that, while perfectly harmless, are offensive to the unaccustomed palate.

To make yogurt, place a small quantity of whey from the soft cheese into a clean jar. A couple tablespoons of whey are about right for a quart but precise measurement is not required. In the future when you have a particularly tasty batch of yogurt a small portion of that yogurt can be used as starter in place of the whey, this will increase your chances of getting another batch like the one you liked. Thoroughly mix the starter with enough raw milk to nearly fill the jar and place in a warm draft free location which is about body temperature. It is very important that the milk which you have cultured with the whey not be disturbed and that the temperature remains constant, otherwise it will separate into curds and whey. The yogurt will be ready to cool and eat in 4 to 8 hours depending on the conditions. The yogurt may be carefully checked to see if it has thickened but be careful not to disturb it too much. Cooling the yogurt before serving will reduce its tendency to separate into to curds and whey. Commercial yogurt often has products added to stabilize it and reduce separation. If the yogurt comes out with a strong flavor the most likely cause was keeping the yogurt warm for too long. Try making another batch and either reduce the temperature at which the yogurt is fermented or reduce amount of time the yogurt is kept warm. Strong flavored yogurt, if it was cause by high temp or overlong fermentation, can be used as starter for a new batch and the strong flavor will not be passed on to the new batch. However if the yogurt smells yeasty it is fine to eat or make cheese from it but it should not be used as starter unless the object is to make more yeasty yogurt

Traditionally cabbage is the vegetable most commonly preserved by lacto-fermentation. Today, however, most sauerkraut is preserved by pickling in vinegar rather than by lacto-fermentation. The flavor of pickled sauerkraut is far more acidic and harsh than that of sauerkraut produced by lacto-fermentation and has much lower levels of vitamins and enzymes. The following recipe presents a method of producing traditional sauerkraut which leaves the vitamins and enzymes intact.

The following materials are needed to make sauerkraut. If no whey is available double the salt; however not using whey increases the chances of spoilage.
1 medium Cabbage
4 tablespoons whey from soft cheese or yogurt
1 tablespoon Non-iodized salt such as Real Salt TM, sea salt, or canning salt
Thoroughly cleaned jars or crocks.

Shred the cabbage using a sharp knife or grater.

Mix all ingredients in a bowl and pound with a wooden masher or meat hammer until the cabbage releases juice. This usually requires 10 to 15 minutes of pounding depending on how much cabbage is being processed and who is doing it.

Pack the mixture TIGHTLY into the clean glass jars and mash it down until the juice covers it completely. In some cases it may be necessary to use a weight to hold the cabbage under the surface of the liquid. If there is not enough juice add additional whey. Cover the jars to keep out insects, mice and dust. Canning jars and lids work well but any jar or crock will do.

Store the sauerkraut at room temperature for several days and then move to a cool place. The sauerkraut will keep well for six months or longer and the flavor will improve with age. Many people like to add additional ingredients, such as caraway seed, shredded carrots, onions, chili peppers or what ever strikes their fancy. The same process, omitting the pounding, can be used with cucumbers, beets and turnips as well as many other vegetables in place of cabbage. In the event that the lacto-fermented vegetables spoil the odor will be so vile that nobody would be willing to taste them. Spoilage in lacto-fermented foods is very obvious unlike canned foods where the food can be fatally contaminated by botulism yet show no obvious sign of spoilage.

Lacto-fermentation as a method of food preparation and preservation is a useful addition to the skill set of anyone who wishes to preserve food safely and does not have access to the power grid and modern supply chains. Lacto-fermentation used in conjunction with drying, potting, salting and smoking allows the preservation of virtually any food produced on the homestead with out relying on outside inputs other than salt.

Reference:
Fallon, Sally and Enig, Mary G. Ph.D. Nourishing Traditions, Washington, DC: NewTrends Publishing, 2001.

JWR Adds: Be sure to follow the necessary safety guidelines for lacto-fermentation. If you suspect that a batch has gone "off" then discard it. Anyone with a sensitive stomach should show great caution when considering adding fermented foods to their diet.

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Letter Re: Storing Treet Brand Canned Meat

Mr. Rawles,
First, I would like to say thank you for honoring our Lord in your work. Thanks also, for writing your novel "Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse". It is excellent. I have been recommending it to all of those I love.

As I have been preparing for a while, I have been more often cooking my prep food and trying to adjust to that life style. I have been caching "Treet". It is a canned [spiced luncheon] meat that has a consistency similar to bologna. I have been storing Treet rather than Spam, because it is supposed to keep for about a year longer than Spam, and it is about 75 cents less expensive [per can].

The following is a delicious recipe that I came up with from my survival stores.

1-1/2 cup rice
1- Teaspoon of salt
A few shakes of garlic powder
A few shakes of onion powder
Some celery seed
Parsley flakes
Thyme
A dash of paprika since color affects our attitudes about food
One can of cubed Treet, sauteed
Soy Sauce to taste

Cook the rice to the desired consistency and then add the cubed Treet and soy sauce. Adjust salt and soy to your preferences. - Trevor T.

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Odds 'n Sods:

More than a dozen readers mentioned this prominent mainstream media mention: Energy fears looming, new survivalists prepare. This was an Associated Press wire service article also ran in the Washington Post, on Fox.com, and in daily papers across the nation. It is no wonder that all of the long term storage food vendors are getting deluged with orders. Some of the Sheeple are awakening