hursday April 24 2008
Food Shortages in the US Underscore the Weakness of JIT Inventory Systems
The mass media is currently in a frenzy about spot shortages of rice, flour, and cooking oil at COSTCO stores. I've fielded seven radio interviews in the last couple of days. The only good news is that we set an all-time record yesterday, with 22,217 unique site visits to SurvivalBlog in one day! The rationing situation is getting worse. Several SurvivalBlog readers sent me this: Wal-Mart's Sam's Club limits rice purchases. Meanwhile, we read in The Washington Times: Americans hoard food as industry seeks regulations.
Josh Gerstein, the reporter that interviewed me for the recent New York Sun piece, just got his two minutes of fame on FOX News: Food Shortage Coming? No Rice For You (It used to be called "five minutes of fame", but apparently time is being rationed, too.)
Things can get a lot worse, and they probably will, since the recent shortages and jumps in food prices are global, and were driven by increased fuel costs, the looming Ug99 wheat rust menace, and a pitiful wheat harvest in Australia. (Australia has had drought in three of the last six years, and this year they reported their smallest wheat harvest in 12 years.) A tremendous amount of US wheat and rice has been exported to east Asia in the past six months, leaving short supplies here. It was inevitable that this would eventually show up at the consumer level. Part of the current problem at the COSTCOs and Sam's Clubs is that commercial bakeries and restaurants have resorted to buying more rice and flour at the Big Box stores. It is not clear whether this is because of shortages at their normal suppliers, or because the COSTCOs weren't keeping up with price increases (making them cheaper than buying wholesale), some stockpiling in anticipation of future price increases, or a combination of these factors. What is clear is that American consumers have finally caught on, and are now likely to stock up. Yesterday, even the stodgy The Wall Street Journal jumped on the preparedness bandwagon, when they printed this editorial: Load Up the Pantry. I predict that if there is media attention that is any more vocal than this, it could induce a buying panic like the Johnny Carson toilet paper incident.
An underlying factor that is being under-reported by the mainstream media is that the modern-day Just in Time (JIT) inventory control is a part of the current problem. As I wrote in SurvivalBlog back in February of 2007, by enthusiastically adopting the Japanese kanban system, America retailers have left themselves quite vulnerable to both wholesale shortages and consumer demand spikes. Inventories are intentionally kept lean, for efficiency. This is great for cutting costs in normal times, but it is dangerously fragile whenever a disruption occurs. With JIT, every purchase is logged at the checkout counter terminal, and once a predetermined shelf threshold is reached, an automatic restocking order gets forwarded through the system. Typically, these re-supply shipments take around 24 hours. But a big spike in sales can totally overwhelm the system, leaving empty shelves.
I'm glad that most SurvivalBlog readers stocked up well in advance. By doing so, you are now part of the solution in a food crisis, rather than part of the problem. Because you stocked up many months ago, each one of you represents one less buyer rushing to the store at the 11th hour. And, by having extra on hand, you can dispense charity to your less prudent neighbors.
If the current rice shortage gets any worse, you need to be prepared to dispense charity. I assume that the average SurvivalBlog reader has about 200 pounds of rice on hand. I recommend that you identify friends, neighbors, co-workers and church brethren that are gluten intolerant. For most of us, a shortage of rice, by itself, is not much of an issue. We can simply shift to eating more wheat. But this is not an option for folks that are gluten intolerant (also known as celiac disease, or celiac sprue.) If any of your acquaintances are in this category and they report that they are running out of rice, then quietly offer to give them some. For the sake of OPSEC, just let them know that you have "a little extra" that you can share. Never hand out any of your rice stockpile in more than five pound increments, or you might start some unfriendly rumors.
Hopefully, this will be a short term phenomenon. I anticipate that the Bush administration will soon sharply curtail exports of rice and wheat. Once the current shortage is alleviated, we should both thank God for his Providence, and take this as a reminder to stock up even more, to be prepared for future shortages. Remember our motto:" Two is one, and one is none."/p>
Letter Re: Dramatic Increases in Food Prices
Jim:
Two months ago you could purchase Almond Nut Butter for around $7.50 per 16 ounce jar. Today the Almond butter is selling for $17.00 per jar. Today Cashew Nut Butter sells for around $11.50 and two months ago it sold for around $6.00 per 16 ounce jar. A clerk at Walmart commented that prices are rising fast.
Rosauers Grocery Store in Kalispell, Montana had raised its prices more than 11 percent in February and has raised them again in April, some up to 17%. They blame rising fuel costs. What you purchase today will not cost the same next week because oil and food commodities future prices are soaring.
A local feed store that also sells food grains had one of its largest selling days ever Monday when the east and west coast food shortages hit the major media. I saw one fellow purchase a 3/4 ton pick up truck full of sacked food grains and beans. Money is coming out of the local mattresses to stock up before panic shopping starts.
It is possible that those food shortage news stories set into motion a hoarding collapse of our eight day national supply of grain before the stories were spiked. We will know by the end of the coming week the effects of Monday's strategic nationwide shopping. The e-mail re these news stories is still being sent around the Internet. Each time a new food shortage occurs somewhere in the nation expect to see more strategic buying. After we reach the end of our just in time national grain supply we will see food riots and I expect the government will formally declare martial law and impose food rationing. The media will step in blaming hoarders for the food shortages.
Yesterday COSTCO showed my wife what we purchased in 2008 on the hand held checkout wand and that we had already exceeded our 2007 purchases in the first quarter of 2008. Needless to say this tells us all of our shopping habits are being carefully tracked. I believe that people are being profiled as resistors or hoarders. [Some deleted, for brevity] - Rosie the Bull, in Montana
Letter Re: Will Peasant Farmers Fare Better than the Rich in TEOTWAWKI?
Hi,
I’m finding SurvivalBlog very interesting in these troubling times. I came across it in the bibliography of a good novel, "Last Light", by Alex Scarrow, which took me to Peak Oil, and then to your blog.
I live in a small city in the most unknown part of Italy , a southern region called Basilicata . It’s always been a region bypassed by history and its inhabitants have known a modicum of well being only in the past 20 years. You might have heard of a book called "Christ Stopped at Eboli" by Carlo Levi. Well, that’s here. Though of course right now, it’s a charming place to live, with a lively music scene, great art and new restaurants opening up every day, people still remember vividly a subsistence existence.
I think having been very poor could actually be a huge advantage if and when it is The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI). There’s still a huge huge amount of knowledge in their DNA about how to make do under harsh conditions of extreme scarcity. I can’t imagine them panicking if horrible things happen because every home has a grandmother or grandfather or an uncle that tills a small field, that can make sausage and is really good at canning. They have literally thousands of years of experience in banding together in harsh conditions. My sisters in law know everything there is about storing food, canning, etc.
In many ways, the millennial poverty (now greatly alleviated) will probably prepare them well if things collapse. And maybe areas of the world that are used to living in scarcity will do better than rich urban areas. They might not collapse, just revert to a previous culture. Also, this area is very rich in water and they’ve just discovered the largest methane fields in Europe .
Anyway congratulations on your fascinating blog. Right now, there’s no food scarcity because Italians don’t have a long food chain. They are very careful to eat locally and by law food’s origins must be labelled and Italians prefer national food to imported food, because they are snobbish about the taste of imported food. Also, Italy grows most of its own rice. Best, - E.J.
JWR Replies: I wholeheartedly agree that in the event of a societal collapse, those that live close to the land will fare better than most others. It may go down in history as a Great Inversion--something analogous to France, during the Revolution, when wealthy people in desperation traded rings set with precious stones, gold necklaces, and fancy furniture for loaves of bread. Perhaps in the next collapse they'll be trading Jet Skis and big screen plasma televisions. This sort of inversion was aptly described by Pat Frank, in his early-1960s post-nuke novel "Alas, Babylon." The novel is set in rural Florida. The story describes how the erstwhile poor black residents coped much better than rich whites, simply because they were already accustomed to making do. When dollars became worthless, suddenly it was practical skills that trumped all else. Before the Schumer hit the fan, the "Po Folks" already raised gardens, kept small livestock, and were experienced subsistence fishermen. Their white neighbors had a lot of catching up to do, to reach the same level of self-sufficiency.
Could life imitate at? I think so. The most likely to prosper in a collapse will me middle class farmers and ranchers that are well-removed from urban areas . They can capitalize on their food production kills and infrastructure, yet will be isolated from most of the peril that will grip the cities and suburbs. A farmer with a pair of well-trained draft horses and old-fashioned (horse-drawn) machinery will do the best of all. These farmers with new-found wealth will of course have to quickly hire some mercenaries to protect what they have. Speaking of Italy, the days ahead may get downright Machiavellian.
Odds 'n Sods:
Reader Jeff B. flagged this in The Wall Street Journal: Green Acres II: When Neighbors Become Farmers. .Jeff's comment: "I like how this guy took the idea of leased farm or grazing land and applied it to his neighborhood yards! The best part is that his neighbors are much more accepting of it then the trend toward 50-page home owner covenants would leave one to imagine"
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Eric Roseman of The Sovereign Society uses the term "inverse stagflation" for the current market that simultaneously has both inflation and deflation. (A term coined by Renee Haugerud, back in 2003.) He says that it is in some ways, the economy is similar to the 1970s, with galloping inflation in commodities prices, but with but with some sectors exhibiting distinct deflation such as the declining housing market, 12+ months of a declining equities markets, and a painfully tight credit market. (Tight credit is deflationary, since the money multiplier effect also works in reverse.) He sees a big margin squeeze coming, and plenty of pain created by markets slamming pillar to post between inflation and deflation.
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Hawaiian K. found this for us: Veteran survivalist/economist Howard J. Ruff cites Shadowstats data that points to an upcoming hyperinflationary depression.
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I heard that Affordable Shortwaves is offering a free earbud/mic with each MURS Alert handheld sold ($74 each) and that they have the MURS Alert motion alert transmitter priced at just $99 each. This is a considerable savings from ordering them from the manufacturer, and you can also avoid the data mining that Dakota Alert does with each Internet order.
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions." - Daniel Webster
Wednesday April 23 2008
Notes from JWR:
I just got off the phone with Charles Feldman, a reporter with radio station KNX in Los Angeles. At the end of my interview, he asked me to poll the SurvivalBlog readership: If you live in the greater Los Angeles area, and have experienced any food rationing or empty shelves at a "big box" store or at a supermarket in the past few weeks, please give him a call. (He is trying to gauge how widespread the rationing is.) You can phone him at (323) 900-2070. If you call on Wednesday, please call between 9 am and 5 pm, PST. Please start your call by mentioning that it is regarding rationing. If you leave a message, please mention the city where the store is located. Thanks!
The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $230. This auction is for four items: A FoodSaver GameSaver Turbo Plus heavy duty food vacuum packaging system (a retail value of $297) kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, an autographed copy of : "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation", an autographed copy of "SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog.", and a copy of "The Encyclopedia of Country Living", by the late Carla Emery. The four items have a combined retail value of around $395. The auction ends on May15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.
Fostering the Survival Instinct in Babies and Young Children, by Andrea J.
There has been a great push in this country by child rearing experts and the medical profession that children must be "socialized". It has been a pivotal buzzword for educators and parents alike. It is a main reason for the negative swell toward homeschooling. Yet, it is my contention that what we need to foster, from birth, is natural instinct. Natural instinct is what we understand as the survival instinct. It is an innate instinct of distrust. It is the instinct that alerts us as we start down a dark alleyway on our way home from work. It is the instinct that forces us to take a step back from a new person that we meet that sets off alarm bells in our brain. It is this instinct that must be fostered in our children and future generations.
From the moment our children are born, they are whisked away from the mother in the arms of another. As parents, we hand our babies off to Aunt Betty and Uncle Ernie, the day care worker, people we meet, and those we don't even know, the girls at the office, and those child care workers at church and the gym. It is expected. Those that don't hand their children over are scolded, scorned or scoffed at. Negative comments about the welfare of the baby are passed around behind the back of the cautious parent.
All of this passing around from person to person and situation to situation kills the child's very first survival instinct- distrust. A baby who is bonded closely with his primary caregiver will not take kindly to being passed from person to person. They will scream until they are returned to that person whom they trust above all else. A child who has been passed around and has never bonded closely with one primary caregiver will not display any sense of distrust with strangers or strange situations at all.
This initial distrust can be observed in the animal kingdom. From cow calves to elephant calves, the animal that is left with its primary caregiver, usually its mother, will not allow human contact. It will not stand to be touched or petted. It will scurry behind the knees of its mother and peer out at the unfamiliar person.
On the farm, we observe this all the time. Our beef cows calve in the field and are raised by their mothers. Our dairy cows, on the other hand, are separated at birth and raised on a bottle. They bond with the people who feed them. What about the beef calves? Any cowboy can tell you how tough it is to separate the momma's and babies. On the other hand, the dairy calves will follow even the farm dog around with no sense of danger or distrust.
How does one begin to foster a sense of distrust in children? Can it be learned in fifth grade when the local policeman comes and tells the school kids not to talk to strangers? Studies have shown over and over again that children will go to strangers, leave with them and trust them. Is this the result of our "socialized" society? How does this translate to these people as adults? Are these people more apt to find themselves in difficult situations, unable to distinguish a potential threat to themselves and their loved ones?
Allowing a baby to bond closely with one or two people is critical in fostering the survival instinct. It is natural. In fact, it is the most natural thing in the world. How does one start? Start by breastfeeding. Feeding time is bonding time. In a survival situation, powdered baby formula might not be available. Breastfeeding not only encourages a close bond, but it is also very convenient. A family on the move may forget a bottle, but I can guarantee that they won't forget Mom.
Wear your baby. During the daylight hours, wear your baby. Native cultures have always used various slings or wraps to keep their baby close while working. Only in modern times have we developed all sorts of contraptions to keep baby happy and away from us so that we can go on about our lives as usual. A sling or Maya wrap allows you to keep your baby content all day and close for feedings. In a survival situation, it keeps the baby quiet, warm and content.
Wearing your baby also offers the benefit of not having to share your baby with strangers. A baby in a stroller invites a host of onlookers and well wishers, exposing your baby to a host of strangers and their germs. A baby in a sling is almost always content and is but another step in the bonding process.
Sleep with your baby. Many people will surely sneer at this one, but sleep, like feeding, is a time of trust and deep bonding. Learning to sleep is important for an infant. Putting your child in another room, closing the door so you can't hear them screaming is certainly not natural. The cry of a child is supposed to drive us to action, it is part of our survival instinct. Sleeping with your baby is natural, all species of animals sleep with their offspring. In any survival situation, it may be necessary to share close quarters with your family members, it should be the norm, not the exception.
As baby's become toddlers, don't push them into the unfamiliar. I see this all the time at family gatherings, a parent forcing a child to sit on Grandpa's knee. Respect your toddler's sense of distrust; someday his life may depend on it. We must stop pushing our children to be "social". If a young child refuses to go to someone or resists a situation, clearly, there is no reason to force it on him. That child will never learn to trust his instincts, because we, as parents, don't trust his instincts'. Let the child lead. We are always bothered by our children's reluctance to accept new situations and people not because we want what is best for that child, but because we are afraid of what other people will think about us and our style of parenting.
By not respecting the reluctance of our children toward people or situations, we teach them to ignore their own internal warning signs. Only humans are unique in this, any other species would certainly perish.
Toddlers will always test and push their limits, but a toddler who trusts his caregiver and has bonded closely will be alert to that person's subtle nuances and body signals. In an unfamiliar situation, a toddler will stay close to the one he has bonded with. Often, without words, that person can convey a sense of unease or distrust of an individual or situation thereby keeping the toddler safe from possible danger without being so obvious. The child who has not shared this close bond, will often wander off, oblivious to dangers until an adult chastises him for his misdeed.
Indeed, it has been my experience that the caregiver with whom the toddler has bonded becomes the nucleus around which the toddler experiences the world. Initially, the toddler will always stay close, venturing off only in safe, familiar surroundings, staying close, often within touching distance, in unfamiliar territory or around new people. The toddler will engage in an activity, always keeping the caregiver within eyeshot, traveling back and forth between the activity and the caregiver. Thus the toddler learns to trust the world under the watchful eye of his primary caregiver, the one that he trusts above all else.
It is critical at this stage that the caregiver does not take advantage of the trust that has been built up to this point. If the toddler is not aware of some danger, a sharp, warning tone of voice will stop the toddler in mid action. All parents' possess this "emergency" tone. Unfortunately, this sharp, warning tone of voice is also often used in non-emergency situations, i.e. "Stop kicking your feet at the dinner table!" All effectiveness is soon lost and the toddler will learn to ignore the "emergency" tone of voice. Abusing the power of the "emergency" tone also erodes trust. The sky can only fall so many times.
In conclusion, if we truly wish to give our children an advantage in life, we should begin at birth. Our comfortable lifestyles have made us complacent. Civility towards others at all costs has caused us to abandon and ignore our own instinct of distrust. In the great name of socialization, we continue to place our youngest and most defenseless citizens in possible peril by ignoring their protests. If we, as a species, are to survive in the uncertain future, we must take our cue from the natural world and once again learn to foster the survival instinct in our babies and young children.
The Memsahib Adds: Andrea makes makes excellent points in her article. In our extended family we have noticed the same phenomenon that Andrea describes. In our extended family, the children who were bottle fed and put in day care are continually is hazardous situations because they have no caution. They wander away from the family at the zoo, at restaurants, and at parks. Furthermore they are easily led astray by their peers because they are not bonded to their parents.
Parents who choose a "close parenting" style will need to steel themselves against the pressure they will receive from relatives and neighbor that will chide them for not properly "socializing" their kids. Well meaning church members will repeatedly urge you to leave your children in the church nursery. Friends will chide you to leave your children with a sitter for the sake of your marriage. Ignore them! We used hear this from our family. But, we have seen the result: our kids are confident, competent, and safe. They can be trusted when using an axe or a gun. They are not shy, and in fact are quite good public speakers, (Although we purposely sought out public speaking training for our children, initially in a 4H club.) My advice is to raise your children solidly, dispense fair and impartial discipline, and minimize their exposure to television. You won't be sorry.
Letter Re: The Food Shortages Are Real--Will There Be Panic Buying Soon?
James,
I've read the recent article in the New York Sun (Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World) regarding the [informal] food rationing that has now begun. Everything is starting to unfold quicker than expected, but it is not a huge surprise. I personally own a small and private operation (cash only) which sells large amounts of bulk food storage for those who have their eyes open and are awake to what's going on which is not many. We generally move large quantities of bagged and cleaned Wheat, lentils, soup peas, flax seed and all other manner of legumes( beans) and oats in in large quantities. [Some details deleted, for OPSEC.]
Anyway, the reason I'm contacting you is to let you know that we are now seeing massive shortages and in many cases completely empty warehouses here in western Canada. We work with the very largest suppliers in Western Canada right down to the the small growers. All of the large suppliers supplies are drying up as everything is being shipped out of country and overseas. Growers are hanging on to what little they have for the most part and are not selling out in most cases. Historically this has never happened [in Canada]. We've all taken for granted the availability of our food stuffs and now its crunch time. The global famine has now begun and once the panic of empty store shelves hits the local supermarket. All that I can say is that you had better be ready for a nationwide situation of hysteria and panic. Get what you can now, folks, because it will not be available soon! - LNL
JWR Replies: Thanks for those observations, which confirm what I've been hearing in the United States. It is noteworthy that there are ongoing food price and shortage protests in 33 countries--mostly in the Third World. (Including out-and-out riots, in a few.) One recent bit of news: Japan's hunger becomes a dire warning for other nations.
Letter Re: Free Downloadable Military Manuals and Uncopyrighted Books
Greetings Rawles family!
I am a member of a forum online that I think has a real gem for your readers. Gary, the administrator over at Post Apocalyptic Media (which focuses on post-apocalyptic science fiction, but has some preppers as well) has put together a great project. He edited [US military field manuals] (FMs), and other non-copyrighted books taking out information that would not be useful to non-Army personnel (nothing
tactical or important, strictly Army procedural things). He then put them together in books with titles like "Survival", "Survival: Health" which includes FM 4-25.11 First Aid, Emergency War Surgery, FM 8-284 Treatment of Biological Warfare Agent Casualties, "Survival: Arms", "Survival: Rebuilding", as well as titles like [the 19th Century formulary] "The Household Cyclopedia" (also titled "MacKenzie's 10,000 Recipes") and others to come. All are available to download for free, and are also available [in hard copy] at no cost beyond [the actual cost of] supplies. [They are being sold at zero profit.] The printed ones come with useful and sharp looking camouflage covers that Gary designed. Here are the links [to the forum threads which in turn have links to the PDFs and the Lulu.com ordering pages]:
Military Manuals
19th Century Texts
Regards, - Rightcoast
JWR Replies: Thanks for mentioning that. Be advised that registration is required to access the Post Apocalyptic Media forum, but to register, all that they ask for is a name and e-mail address.
Odds 'n Sods:
Bank of America Net Income Falls 77% on Writedowns. Something tells me that their acquisition of the mortgage lender Countrywide will not do good things for their balance sheet in the coming year.
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UN chief warns world must urgently increase food production
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Just as I predicted, lots of fallowed land in the CRP is again being tilled: Land Once Preserved Now Being Farmed
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Don't miss reading this one, from The Market Oracle: Commercial Banks Heading for Huge Derivatives Losses- Credit Crisis Turning into Credit Armageddon
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Can the liberties of a nation be sure when we remove their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people, that these liberties are a gift from God?" - Thomas Jefferson
Tuesday April 22 2008
Notes from JWR:
A link to an article in the New York Sun is getting forwarded like wildfire on preparedness web sites and blogs, and was both linked at The Drudge Report and mentioned by talk radio host Glenn Beck: Food Rationing Confronts Breadbasket of the World. It is notable that the article specifically talks about shortages at the "big box" warehouse stores like COSTCO and Sam's Club. Those are where I recommended stocking up, in my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course. Even with these current shortages, the course explains how a family can economically stock up 90% of what they need for a year of food storage in just a couple of trips to a warehouse store.
The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $210. This auction is for four items: A FoodSaver GameSaver Turbo Plus heavy duty food vacuum packaging system (a retail value of $297) kindly donated by Ready Made Resources an autographed copy of : "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation", an autographed copy of "SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog.", and a copy of "The Encyclopedia of Country Living", by the late Carla Emery. The four items have a combined retail value of around $395. The auction ends on May15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.
Please continue to spread the word about SurvivalBlog. Links in your e-mail footer and/or at your web page or blog page would be greatly appreciated!
A Warning on Buying Full Capacity Magazines in "Kit Form"
Thankfully, the Federal ban on 11+ round firearms magazines "sunsetted" in September of 2004. But sadly some bans are still in effect at the state and local level. Most notably, these laws are still on the books:
No pistol or SMG magazines with a capacity over 10 rounds in Hawaii. (High capacity magazines that only fit rifles are allowed. (For example, since there are AR-15 pistols, AR-15 magazines are banned.)
No magazines with a capacity over 10 rounds in California, District of Columbia, Massachusetts, and New York. (See State Penal Code 265.23 for details. To the best of my knowledge, 11+ round magazines that were made before 9/94 can be legally purchased by residents of New York.)
No magazines with a capacity over 12 rounds in Chicago, Illinois
No magazines with a capacity over 15 rounds in New Jersey; South Bend, Indiana, or Aurora; Illinois
No magazines with a capacity over 20 rounds in Maryland, Wichita, Kansas, or the City & County of Denver Colorado
In recent months, I've noticed several ads on the Internet for full capacity (11+ round) magazines with the statement "Available in Kit Form for residents of New York and California." One of these advertisements was for Polymer AR-15 PMAGs, which didn't go into production for the civilian market until late 2004! Obviously, customers risk getting into trouble if they buy complete parts sets for magazines that were not made before September of 1994.
Private possession of "high capacity" magazines made after September of 1994 is a felony in New York. Similarly, in California, possession of "high capacity" magazines that were not owned by an individual on or before December 31, 1999 is a felony. (And, since the now-defunct Federal ban of 1994 to 2004 was in effect at the time that this law was enacted, that would also effectively mean that Californians would own only pre-9/1994 magazines.) So what these sellers are offering buyers in those states is the chance to get a felony conviction which would mean losing their right to vote and their right to own a gun for the rest of their lives. I strongly recommend that readers that live in states or cities with restrictions resist the temptation to skirt the law by buying magazine parts "kits". A felony conviction is always a life-changing event.
In such cases, the burden of proof is on the prosecuting attorney, and there is of course a presumption of innocence. Unless there is a post-1994 sales "paper trail", or unless they have post-9/1994 date markings, any magazines of the types made before 9/94 will surely be presumed to be pre-ban. But it would be very easy for a prosecution team to prove that PMAGs didn't start to be available on the civilian market until late 2004.
OBTW, I should mention that similar laws are in effect in other countries. For example:
In Canada: No semi-automatic rifle magazines (except rimfire) with a capacity over 5 rounds, and no pistol magazines with a capacity over 10 rounds. (There are exemptions for members of competitive shooting teams.)
In New Zealand: No centerfire magazines with a capacity over 7 rounds, and no rimfire magazines with a capacity over 15 rounds. (There are exemptions for some licensed "certificate" holders.)
Disclaimer: The aforementioned laws are not all-inclusive lists. Nothing in this post or any of my other posts represent legal advice. Research your state and local laws, and consult a qualified attorney that lives in your jurisdiction.
One closing thought for SurvivalBlog readers that live where these idiotic laws exist: Vote with your feet!
Three Letters Re: Hiding Things in Plain Sight
Jim,
I have very carefully concealed my gun safe but in order to fool potential crooks, but I also have an old one that is very poorly hidden. It has stickers on it from my favorite firearms manufacturers. Once the [burglars] get it back to their den and peel it open, they will find themselves the proud owners of five large sandbags full of gravel. - Andy B.
James,
My wife and I were recently discussing hiding places - what about inside a bucket of paint? Securely wrapping "the valuables" up in appropriate containers (likely several layers of Ziploc sandwich bags) and just dropping it in. If the valuables aren't heavy enough to sink, a rock or piece of metal should be added to keep them at the bottom. Hey, you could even write "Treasure" on the bucket of paint and people would just think it's the name of the paint color, but it would help you remember which one has the stash.
Jim:
Take a look at Habitat For Humanity’s ReStore directory. ReStore only accepts new paint or stain donations, so you don’t have to worry about buying some toxic brew some schmuck dumped off. I buy from here because the only thing I care about is that it is water based latex paint, and that it is in five gallon buckets. I don’t care about the brand, or color, and it’s inexpensive and the money goes to what I happen to believe is a laudable effort. Never mind Jimmy Carter.
I then go to another hardware store and buy new, metal one gallon paint cans and lids. The ones that have the lids that fit into the center of the can, and have to be hammered down, and then pried up with a screwdriver. The plastic ones don’t work that well, so don’t bother with them.
A suitable amount of paint is removed from the five gallon can.
I place my gold, and silver into the one gallon cans along with a desiccant, hammer the lid on, and then submerge them into the five gallon can. Each five gallon container will hold two one gallon containers without any problem. More than that, they get a little heavy, and the paint doesn’t always conceal what is inside the can if the lid should be opened.
I only use this technique for things I will not need to get at readily. It might be good for long term hiding of small handguns, and ammunition as well.
Your site is a welcome find. Have fun! Sincerely, - JTH
JWR Replies: It is interesting that two readers both mentioned the same idea. Because steel paint cans might rust when submerged in water-based paint, I'd recommend using only plastic containers.
One of my favorite "in plain sight" caches that can be used outdoors is a length of 4" diameter PVC pipe, with a glued-on cap on one end, and a threaded cap on the other end. The pipe is buried vertically, with the threaded end cap left protruding from the ground, looking just like a typical septic clean-out cap. Unless you hire someone to pump your septic system or to "snake" your drain pipes, it is highly unlikely that anyone would ever disturb one of these caches.
Letter Re: Potatoes as a Survival Garden Crop
Sir,
It's important to maintain a variety of root and grain crops for use as survival crops. Potatoes are easy to grow, easy to store and are nutritious enough to keep you healthy as a sole food (if you eat 2/3 of them raw). It is true potatoes have to be grown every year and that they are vulnerable to soil pathogens, but they can be grown under relatively low light, cool conditions, so why not take a small part of the harvest and raise them in a greenhouse through the winter with supplemental light. A half 55-gal. drum filled with leaves would permit new potatoes to be harvested occasionally without killing the plant. This is a way to always have some actively growing and experiment with low light conditions. If volcanoes start going off we could have several years of deep gloom. Corn and wheat need lots of light, but potatoes need much less. A traditional storage of potatoes is in buckets buried on their sides. This avoids consuming basement space and also comprises a hidden food supply. You can dig up one bucket at a time to bring into the basement.
In any case, we don't want to trust just one crop. Grains have the advantage of storing longer, especially wheat. Old varieties of corn, wheat, etc. are good, but I worry about GMO contamination. How about some unusual crops: quinoa, amaranth, wild rice, millet, and so forth? Some other root crops: sweet potatoes (see: Sand Hill Preservation Center) and Jerusalem Artichokes (see: Ronninger Potato Farm). Does anyone know of a blog devoted to growing, storing, processing a wide variety of crops from a self-sufficiency standpoint? This can be fun, but there is much to learn. Trading ideas and stock would be helpful. - MSB
JWR Replies: I strongly agree that there is inherent safety in planting a wide variety of crops. In addition to the sources that you mentioned, Seed for Security provides heirloom variety (open pollinated/non-hybrid) gardening seeds for beans, corn, pumpkins, and squash.
Odds 'n Sods:
Retailing Chains Caught in a Wave of Bankruptcies. This is an inevitable result of the liquidity crisis, just as I had warned.
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Attacks in Middle East, Nigeria send oil to record $117.40
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Check out the inventory at CampingSurvival.com: camping gear, first aid supplies, tools, optics, knives, storage food, boots, colloidal silver, NBC protection, you name it. A couple of my favorite items are their emergency dental kit and their magnesium fire starter.
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RBS flagged this blog piece: Foreclosures now outnumber home sales in California
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Live free or die; death is not the worst of evils." - General John Stark, 1809
Monday April 21 2008
Note from JWR:
The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $160. This auction is for four items: A FoodSaver GameSaver Turbo Plus heavy duty food vacuum packaging system (a retail value of $297) kindly donated by Ready Made Resources an autographed copy of : "Rawles on Retreats and Relocation", an autographed copy of "SurvivalBlog: The Best of the Blog.", and a copy of "The Encyclopedia of Country Living", by the late Carla Emery. The four items have a combined retail value of around $395. The auction ends on May15th. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments.
Letter Re: Hiding Things in Plain Sight
Mister Rawles,
Household burglaries are all too common, especially where I live. (In a Cleveland, Ohio suburb. The crooks actually commute out to the suburbs to burglarize!) From news stories, I have observed that : 1.) They aren't too smart. If they were, they'd have a "real" job!), and 2.) They are usually in a hurry. You've mentioned building hidden caches in your blog several times, but have you given any thought to hiding things in plain sight?
For example you could empty out cans of unappealing food items (like dog food, or olives), and using that space for valuables. - Thanks, - Terrence
JWR Replies: Making your own "hide in plain sight" containers is a bit time consuming, but it is a fun exercise for a weekend afternoon. If you carefully remove the label from a steel can, you can saw the can in half. Then empty it out and wash it. After drying it thoroughly, you can stuff it full of valuables and tape it shut. Glue the label back on, and voila! A can that is almost indistinguishable from any others. Some detailed instructions on another method are shown at Instructables.com.
One reputable mail order vendor that sells some very clever mass-produced "diversion" safes is Personal Security Online. Another vendor is PestControls.us. They sell diversion safes that look like books, beer or soda cans, and even rocks. And an even bigger assortment of diversion safe containers is available from eFindOutTheTrurth.com.
Perhaps some readers would care to e-mail me some of their favorite do-it yourself ideas for hiding things in plain sight.
Letter Re: JWR's Opinion of Kalashnikov (AK) Action Rifles
Jim,
What is your opinion on owning the AK variant rifle as a survival weapon? Though medium powered and limited in range to 300 yards, I feel that the simplicity of this weapon is a big plus (as well as magazine capacity, ammo prices/availability. Thanks, Jason, North Idaho
JWR Replies: I do like the AK action. They are very robust and designed to take a tremendous amount of abuse, as this YouTube video graphically illustrates.) The AKs chambered in the intermediate 7.62x39 cartridge are indeed are far less expensive than a FAL, M1A or HK91. But ballistically, this cartridge is insufficient for shooting beyond about 250 yards.The good news: You can have the best of both worlds by buying a Russian American Armory Saiga .308, for around $450. It has the robust AK action, yet it has the full power of 308 Winchester/7.62mm NATO. Magazines for the Saiga used to be a problem, since the largest that came from the factory were 10 rounds. But good quality 25 round magazines are now available, but at $35 each, still fairly expensive. (With the looming threat of another Federal "high capacity" magazine ban if the Democrats take the White House, you should buy at least 10 spare 25 round Saiga magazines! Folding stocks and many other accessories are also available. Saiga .308s have been on the market long enough that used ones are now available for under $400 each, on the private party market. (Available without a paper trail, if bought at a gun show, in most states.)
In today's market, I consider the Saiga .308 the best choice of a battle rifle for someone with a moderate budget. Functionally, it is like owning a Valmet .308. (The Cadillac of Kalashnikovs), yet they are available at a "Chevy" price.
To recapitulate and to add a bit to what I've written in previous posts...
Here are my recommendations for battle rifle purchasing, depending on your budget:
Tight budget (students, pensioners, etc.): A .303, .or 8mm Mauser military surplus bolt action, such as an Enfield or Mauser M1893/M1898. These can often be found at gun shows, for under $200. BTW, the earlier-production Mausers are also classed as Federally exempt "antiques", which can be bought across state lines with no FFL paperwork, is a nice plus.
Young wage earners: SKS carbine.
Older wage earners: Saiga .308 rifle.
Higher income, with some accrued savings: HK91 clone such as the Vector V-51 or JLD PTR-91.
Salaried professionals: L1A1/ FN-FAL clone, M1A, or a HK91 (factory original)
Top tax bracket professionals: Factory original pre-ban (Belgian) FN-FAL, Lithgow L1A1, Valmet M76 .308, Galil .308, a match grade M1A, or a HK91. If you can afford to, get the best optics available, including Trijicon ACOG scopes, and/or Gen. 3 Starlight scopes.
Regardless of your rifle choice, be sure to get the best training that you can afford! If someone is a newbie with just $1,000, I would recommend spending $500 on a rifle, and $500 on training--rather than buying a $1,000 rifle. For those readers on a budget, take advantage of the low cost Appleseed and WRSA training events. If you have more money, then go to one of the best schools such as Front Sight, Gunsite, or Thunder Ranch.
When budgeting for a firearm, remember that you are buying a long term bullet launching capability--not just the bullet launcher itself. That means buying: the rifle, plus magazines, plus ammunition, plus web gear, plus cleaning equipment, plus training, plus a few spare parts, plus perhaps some optics. Hence, a bargain-priced $800 used M1A .308 that you find at a gun show might eventually cost you $3,000 or more, once it is fully outfitted. If you can't afford to buy the whole package, then be rational and buy a less expensive rifle!
Letter Re: Potatoes as a Survival Garden Crop
Mr. Rawles:
The problem with potatoes as a survival crop, is that they are susceptible to soil-borne diseases. Before toxic sprays, seed potatoes were grown at elevations above 800 feet, which does help. They also require a very good root cellar, in order to keep all the way through the winter, until the next planting season. Seed potatoes cannot be stored for years like grains. One [year of] crop failure, and you are done. It helps to swap all your potatoes saved for seed with another gardener, some distance from you. Look for someone with a different type of soil, and you may be able to get by for a number of years. Relying on potatoes as a long term survival crop is risky. Just look at Irish history. - FARMERIK
Odds 'n Sods:
The mainstream media is finally catching on to the surging interest in the Survivalist movement. See, for example, a recent CNN Europe article, in which I'm dubbed " unofficial spokesman" for the survivalist movement: Survivalists get ready for meltdown. OBTW, I was also quoted (albeit indirectly) in a breezy Fortune magazine article: The appeal of gold--Survivalists and speculators see it as the ultimate safe haven, but buying too much can also be a trap
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The folks at HAZARiD (one of our advertisers) recently revamped their web site and put up a video clip. Their fogging applicator can quickly apply the special HAZARiD disinfectant to virtually any surface. Unlike chlorine solutions, the HazardID solution is not corrosive.
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This is probably old news to most SurvivalBlog readers, but in case you missed it: Nalgene to phase out hard-plastic bottles--Containers made with bisphenol A chemical linked to health risks
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Rate of home foreclosures expected to get worse
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"Above this race of men stands an immense and tutelary power, which takes upon itself alone to secure their gratifications, and to watch over their fate. That power is absolute, minute, regular, provident, and mild. It would be like the authority of a parent, if, like that authority, its object was to prepare men for manhood; but it seeks on the contrary to keep them in perpetual childhood : it is well content that the people should rejoice, provided they think of nothing but rejoicing. For their happiness such a government willingly labors, but it chooses to be the sole agent and the only arbiter of float happiness: it provides for their security, foresees and supplies their necessities, facilitates their pleasures, manages their principal concerns, directs their industry, regulates the descent of property, and subdivides their inheritances - what remains, but to spare them all the care of thinking and all the trouble of living? Thus it every day renders the exercise of the free agency of man less useful and less frequent; it circumscribes the will within a narrower range, and gradually robs a man of all the uses of himself. The principle of equality has prepared men for these things: it has predisposed men to endure them, and oftentimes to look on them as benefits. After having thus successively taken each member of the community in its powerful grasp, and fashioned them at will, the supreme power then extends its arm over the whole community. It covers the surface of society with a network of small complicated rules, minute and uniform, through which the most original minds and the most energetic characters cannot penetrate, to rise above the crowd. The will of man is not shattered, but softened, bent, and guided: men are seldom forced by it to act, but they are constantly restrained from acting : such a power does not destroy, but it prevents existence; it does not tyrannize, but it compresses, enervates, extinguishes, and stupefies a people, till [this] nation is reduced to be nothing better than a flock of timid and industrious animals, of which the government is the shepherd." - Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America
Sunday April 20 2008
Notes from JWR:
We are happy to welcome our newest advertiser, Seed for Security. They provide heirloom variety (open pollinated/non-hybrid) gardening seeds.
I am amazed at how political Wikipedia has become. I heard from a reader that the recent attempted deletion of the James Wesley Rawles article at Wikipedia was stopped, by consensus. But now, the neutrality of the article has been called into question. If you are an experienced Wikipedia editor, then please post your opinion about the article's neutrality, one way or the other. Thanks!
Letter Re: Advice on Emergency Dentistry
Dear Mr. Rawles,
I have read and been positively influenced by your novel ["Patriots"]. I am now making provisions for difficult times. Can you recommend any links towards obtaining dentistry kit and basic dental instruction? Mainly interested in being able to perform extraction safely. With Thanks and Sincerity, - Dan-O
JWR Replies: This topic has been covered briefly in the blog, but is important enough that it deserves additional discussion. The most important resource is the book "Where There is No Dentist", available for free download from the Hesperian Foundation (But I recommend getting a bound hardcopy. Ditto for their book "Where There is No Doctor". Used copies can often be found on Amazon.com for little more than the cost of postage.) Back in July of 2007, I posted letters from Tip in Las Vegas and from "J" the Dentist, that describe low cost sources for dental instruments. It would also be wise to stock up on other dentistry supplies such as gauze, oil of cloves, and so forth. Unless you are stranded in the back country, I do not recommend that you put in temporary fillings under present day circumstances. If a filling leaks, it could cause an infection. However, in a genuine TEOTWAWKI situation, temporary fillings may be your only alternative to suffice for weeks or even months until you can get to a qualified dentist. For this reason, you should stock up on temporary filling material such as Cimpat, Tempanol, or Cavit. There are also temporary filling materials packaged for the consumer market that contain very small quantities (under brand names such as Dentek and Temparin), but the per-unit cost is relatively high. With those, you are mostly paying for the packaging. Nor do I recommend "do it yourself" extraction, except again in extremis. Without the support of a crown or bridge, the gap left by an extraction can cause a chain reaction, as other teeth shift, to compensate. This can lead to a series of complications.
Two Letters Re: Potatoes as a Survival Garden Crop
Morning, Jim!
Just a quick addition for your readers to your recent note about potatoes gaining in popularity: most of their useful nutritional value is in their skin and outermost fractions of inches. I believe this is true of most root vegetables. Peeling these vegetables just renders them as a wad of starch or carbohydrate - much less useful for your body than the good Lord intended them to be. All they really need (especially if grown in a home garden where you know what went into the soil) is a quick rinse and a light scrub.
Ideally your order of produce procurement would be as follows:
- home garden or friends' gardens
- public market/farmer market
- grocery store (produce sits for days before it gets displayed!)
- big box store with produce department (yuck)
So, no, peeled, frozen, frie
