Tuesday July 29 2008
Note from JWR:
The Memsahib would appreciate your prayers. She is scheduled for surgery for 11 a.m. Pacific Time, today. We are praying for a quick and full recovery.
Letter Re: More Observations on the Aftermath of Hurricane Dolly
Dear JWR and Memsahib,
On June 30, in a response to "Help with a Non-Preparedness Minded Spouse", I shared the thoughts of like-minded men in a group meeting regularly with my husband to prepare for survival needs. Due to the lack of female companionship I was experiencing, and the frustration my husband's buddies were experiencing, I offered to start a "Ladies Auxiliary" group to motivate the wives to see the value of preparing for emergency survival. Living near the coast of Texas provides us with the challenge of hurricanes each summer, so that became the topic for personal and immediate preparedness.
We had NOAA hurricane tracking maps, National Hurricane Center Weather Service information, hurricane terminology lists, emergency preparedness time lines, steps for a family plan, lists for emergency/bug out kits and first aid kits, what to do before, during and after the storm, links to pet plans, and how to secure your home, help for the elderly, online vulnerability awareness of communities, plans for escape routes, and the Contraflow Plan for one way traffic during evacuation, all in binders with appropriate tabs. At the back of each binder, I placed a print out from the well-known Red Cross web site which showed kits for general emergency equipment such as three day pack, AM/FM shortwave radios with flashlights, and cell phone chargers. There was an article on how to put together a 72 hour kit and another on clarifying and purifying water. The final article was on dangers in the world right now. (The Internet is an invaluable source of information.)
I sent out invitations, planned snacks, set out chairs, provided TV trays to set binders on for note taking, sent out my husband for hi-liters, then waited in hopes of an hour or so of introductions and preparedness discussion. About half of my ladies came and they stayed for four hours of in-depth planning!! The ladies who couldn't come that day came the following week and also stayed for four hours, with the same results!
The short story is that three days after meeting with my latest group of ladies, the coast of Texas was visited by Hurricane Dolly. Like everyone else in the area, we were busy boarding up windows, filling the bathtub with water, bringing out the flashlights, batteries and radios. The lights went out and we were off the grid for about 22 hours. We got our generator to working for a window AC unit and refrigerator and were able to connect a neighbor's fridge until the lights were back on. We lost one tree branch and developed a small ceiling leak. A neighbor came by and prayed with my husband for protection before the storm. We were spared from local flooding but have seen piles of branches all over town. Unfortunately, other towns have had serious flooding and property damage.
I was able to disperse additional booklets to half of my ladies to file in a front pocket of their binders before Dolly hit. The new booklets are sealed in waterproof Ziploc bags and have charts that I wish I had when I was first married. The charts provide space for valuable information on certificates for births, marriage, insurance, important phone numbers, emergency items, banking, safe deposit box, investments, medical info, property inventory, Social Security, military, adoptions, etc.
I have been able to speak to one of my ladies who couldn't be thankful enough for the planning we did. She stockpiled water in her home and tried to spread the word in advance to everyone she knew. Unfortunately, she told me that some did not prepare and now have serious flooding problems, and have limited drinking water. Hurricane Dolly came upon us very quickly and those who did not prepare early are having serious problems. FEMA is waiting until cities can finish local evaluations before they move in for assistance.
So [ladies and] gentlemen, don't give up if you or your friends have a "Non-preparedness Minded Spouse"! Consider the natural hazards your area is prone to experience, such as: earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, winter storms, volcanoes, landslides, fires, wildfires, hurricanes, thunderstorms and lightning, hazardous materials, etc. Begin collecting information addressing safety needs in your own locale and gently take your spouse and family on a fact sharing mission to prepare in a very real, practical way to protect your loved ones if a natural disaster should hit your area. From there you may be able to move on to even greater plans before something permanent hits the fan. Good Luck! - Charlotte R.
Four Letters Re: Questions from A Not-Quite Convinced Reader
Jim,
I was intrigued by Robert C.'s recent letter which questions why we should prepare. I think he has a great question there, and one which deserves further discussion.
I put together a personal 'Top Five' I'd like to share: Top Five Reasons To Be Preparedness Oriented:
5) It's simply a natural extension of growing up -- understanding and fulfilling our responsibilities. As babies we have all of our basic needs provided for us by our parents. As we mature, we all begin to take some responsibility for our own needs by doing things like getting an education; learning how to cook; learning a trade; working for money which we trade for food, shelter, and other needs; etc.
Lots of people stop in their development when they get to a point where their current personal activities interface with their current societal and cultural infrastructure in a way that meets their current needs. Part of this is their current revenue supports desired 'quality of life', but it's really more than that. The problem is that current personal activities (including but not limited to career); the interface to society (including but not limited to economy, government, and society); and current needs (including but not limited to shelter, water and food) are all dynamic.
Some people experience a moment of insight during their development that says, "Hey, if xyz changes I'm going to be in trouble. I won't be able to
Preparedness living in this context is the realization that as adults, and in particular as heads of households, we must be able to provide for all the basic needs of our families without relying on preconceived assumptions about what others will provide for us.
4) Because we're not mentally ill. We have uncontrolled wildfires at times that threaten life and property, right? Sometimes we have earthquakes, right? sometimes have tornados, right? Hurricanes? Flooding? Hard Winters? Crop failures? Food contamination? Do heavy winds sometimes knock-down power lines? Do heavy snows sometimes preclude me from driving into town to get a pizza? Do we ever have banking failures? Do we sometimes experience economic recession? Do some entire industries (like manufacturing) get 'outsourced' threatening job security? If I'm not mistaken we've had all these in the USA in just the last 10 years, right?
On a less frequent basis do cultures experience wars? Pandemics? Great Depressions? Government collapse/restructuring? Genocide? Haven't all these happened on a world scale in the last 50 years?
To deny these things happen would be diagnostic of a mental illness. They do happen. Preparedness orientation is simply the acknowledgement of this truth, coupled with the will to act.
3) For the same reasons we wear seat belts when we drive our cars; have fire extinguishers in our kitchens; carry health insurance for ourselves and our families; and buy life insurance. It's not that we want to be involved in motor vehicle accidents; experience kitchen fires; have medical problems; nor die young leaving a wife and children behind -- we just recognize that such things are possible and seek to mitigate these dangers.
2) In the end, we will either be right -- there was a need for preparedness and we were ready to face all challenges; or we will be pleasantly surprised -- there was no need to prepare and live through a time of hardship. Either way, we win!
1) In obedience to God who tells us that all things will not continue as they have in the past; and that we should: Provide for our families. Arm ourselves. Not be destroyed for lack of wisdom. Keep oil in our lamps. - Keith C.
Jim,
Please refer the reader back to the link you and others have posted on the Internet over the past year to "Topsoil and Civilization" : "Civilized man has marched across the face of the earth and left a desert in his footprints." What more documented evidence should he need after that? Here's my Cliff-notes version of the problem
and solution (with some more useful links). - Thanks, - Chris
Hi Jim:
It seems an odd request from the poster today that he wants someone to convince him to prepare to take care of himself. He probably has never faced being unemployed? Never faced any family member of friend being unemployed? Too bad as that would have given him the understanding of how much on his own he can be. He likes to have his trash collected. In my community I have to pay the trash collection service to take away my trash. It doesn't come for free. I have to pay for my water to come into my home. That water station uses energy and with energy costs rising -- that water is going to cost more money.
Why prepare? Well, read what even the US government and the global governments are urging citizens to do to to help themselves. They are telling folks to prepare to help themselves. Hint: the government is not going to be their immediately on a white horse to bring you your groceries, haul away your trash, etc.
Any historic events to support a need for being prepared? Good grief! Has this person being residing in a cave all of his life? Where to begin -- 1) The dot.com bust; 2) the current housing bust; 3) the financial bust globally in sub-primes; 4) the 1980s; 5) 1970s (stagflation); 6) WWII -- goods were rationed and quality went down (read historic newspapers -- you have to help educate yourself); 7) the Great Depression -- shortages of food supplies (people hungry in some areas while farmers burned potatoes in other areas; droughts so bad that dust clouds rolled from Kansas all the way to Washington DC); 8) The Panic of 1907. Crawl out of under the rock and spend some time reading! - Cynthia W.
Dear Jim:
Reader Robert C. wrote: “There have been depressions before, and the fall of civilizations, but as far as I can tell, nothing on the scale of what you seem to talk about. Do you have any good historical examples I could look into?”
Well, we have been very fortunate in the US to have only experienced one “Great” Depression, and have kept all our recent wars overseas, but you don’t have to look too far abroad for examples of depressions and war that put the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse back in the saddle.
Just a few highlights:
Try living in Germany 1914 to 1945: war, famine, hyperinflation, depression, Nazi takeover, war, concentration camps, urban saturation bombing… The Russians’ 20th century looks even worse… war, Communist coup, farm “collectivization”, the forced starvation of millions, Stalin’s purges/mass murder, war, German invasion… China 1920 to 1970: civil war, Japanese invasion, Communist takeover, starvation, Mao’s purges/mass murder…
Legendary Wall Street investor Barton Biggs has a new book “Wealth, War and Wisdom” that reviews the horrific 20th Century and recommends that wealthy folks put perhaps 5% of their net worth in a self-sufficient farm, and stock up.
To quote “The trigger event could be a massive terrorist or nuclear attack that disrupts the economy for months and maybe for years. A power failure that lasted not a day but a month would paralyze a modern economy. Or it could be a plague, a massive SARS-like epidemic, in with hundreds of millions die, or an electronic explosion that cascades into a complete breakdown of the world’s financial accounting systems. Whatever happens, it most likely will be an event that is both unexpected and we will not be prepared for. The world is very good at locking the barn door after the horses have been stolen.”
Biggs left out EMP terrorist strikes! (By the way, read the e-novel "Lights Out" for a very entertaining and educational portrayal an EMP strike on the US.)
Dr Gary North’s "favorite" TEOTWAWKI disaster would be an NBC attack on banking centers designed to bring down our inherently unstable fractional reserve banking system, which would then shutdown the payment system for the division of labor that keeps us all fed. (Of course the way things are going, the terrorists might just decide that this is not really necessary, now that our political and financial elites have done such a good job of wrecking the economy...)
What are the odds? For any individual scenario, low. But as Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues persuasively, low probability statistical outlier events - “Black Swans” - are a lot more common than we think, as we are prone just extrapolate current trends ad infinitum.
Put it this way - if you were going to jump out of an airplane with just one parachute - what kind of reliability odds do you want? Is a 1% chance of a catastrophic failure
Okay? How many jumps would you make with a 1% chance of having a non-functioning parachute? None, for me! Metaphorically that’s what we do every day. or every year, our parachute being the complicated, interdependent, and fragile systems that keep us alive… until an unforeseen Black Swan event comes up.
My intuition tells me the ongoing increase in government taxation and regulation, the decline of moral standards, educational standards, and the increasing complexity and interdependency of the economy makes it even more likely that a disaster would cascade into chaos. Even “just” a rerun of the Great Depression would be likely to turn into something much more horrible with our current society…. Noted investor Doug Casey forecasts what he calls a “Greater Depression”.
It’s seems very prudent to me to have some catastrophe insurance. Don’t spend your whole life, or all your money on it. But do get some, because our Black Swan event is out there - we just don’t know when it’s going to show up. Regards, - OSOM
Odds 'n Sods:
I'm still predicting a dramatically weaker US Dollar in foreign exchange in the months to come. As I've mentioned before, you should watch the US Dollar Index (USDX) closely. If and when it dips decisively below 72, watch out. From there, we might see a precipitous drop! (Back in August of 2007, I first mentioned the "magic number " 72. It is a sort of "line in the sand" number for currency traders in their assessment of the US Dollar. Anywhere south of 72 lies extreme peril--and below 55 perhaps the traders will start to question the very existence of the US Dollar as a viable currency unit. It is notable that the USDX has been bouncing off the new-found "floor" of 72 for the past three months. Continue to watch the USDX closely. It is an important barometer that may provide a brief warning of of a Dollar Collapse.
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Speaking of weaker currencies, Paul from Kentucky sent us this: Zimbabwe to remove [more] 'zeros' from currency.
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Jack B. mentioned this: Inflation dogs Russia's booming economy. When inflation worsens, move even more of your assets to tangibles.
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Thanks to Cheryl N. for this article link: Costco to Raise Prices as much as 15%. If you haven't done so already, it is time to implement an Alpha Strategy, in anticipation of mass inflation. The spiraling price of fuel, just by itself, is making significant inflation inevitable. If you need to exactly what to stock up on, see my "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course. It is geared toward stocking up at "Big Box" stores such as Costco and Sam's Club.
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It has been announced that Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles (TSCC) will return to the small screen on September 8th. IMHO, it is the best quasi-survivalist show on television. (But I'm probably not the best judge of that, since I don't get the chance to see much television. We don't own a television set. The few shows that we do watch are either on DVD or via Internet streaming.) OBTW, this reminds me: One of the stars of TSCC is Summer Glau, who played River Tam in the outstanding television series Firefly, and in the subsequent Hollywood movie Serenity. A new Collector's Edition of Serenity was recently released. Great stuff!
Jim's Quote of the Day:
"One of the sad signs of our times is that we have demonized those who produce, subsidized those who refuse to produce, and canonized those who complain." - Thomas Sowell
Monday July 28 2008
Note from JWR:
I was quoted in a recent Alternet piece by Scott Thill: Massive Economic Disaster Seems Possible -- Will Survivalists Get the Last Laugh? Some of my comments were taken slightly out of context and in one instance mischaracterized, so it might be better for you to read my entire set of responses to Mr. Thill's interview questions. I should mention that if they were alive today, my great-great grandparents--that came out west via covered wagon in the 1850s--might be miffed to hear that they were branded as part of a "genocidal" movement. They didn't come out west looking to slaughter Indians. In fact, some of their sons married into a tribe. I have some cousins that are bona fide ("tribally enrolled") Native Americans.
Finding Your Land Rover in the Wild Kingdom of Banking
I grew up in the1960s glued to the television, like most other suburban kids. One of the shows that I enjoyed watching was Wild Kingdom, sponsored by Mutual of Omaha. The wise old narrator, Marlin Perkins, went way out in the hinterboonies of South America and Africa to film his documentaries. But I noticed that he was almost always a detached observer. It was usually his young, muscular assistants that were put in harm's way, but not Perkins himself, who was safe and sound. He often made comments such as: "'I'll watch from the safety of the Land Rover, while Jim wrestles the massive Anaconda. Ouch! Be careful, Jim!"
The Wild Kingdom documentary television show makes a nice analogy for the current banking crisis. (And, coincidentally, it was Mutual of Omaha that last week came to the rescue of two failed banks.) The recent news of numerous bank failures makes it clear that it is now coming down to survival of the fittest, in the banking world. Welcome to another episode of Wild Kingdom, folks. There are a lot of banks that are unfit creatures. The pools of credit have dried up, and these creatures are dying of thirst, and starting to stagger. The vultures are beginning to circle. Its a dangerous world out there, and if you are wise, you won't be in the thick of it, exposed to risk. Instead, you will find yourself a safe vantage point and simply observe, nod, sip a Mint Julep, and make sagacious comments like: "I told you so", and "Those poor, deluded souls."
So where will you find your safe vantage point, from which you can observe the dramatic unraveling of the banking system? What will be your "Land Rover" equivalent? I've said it many times before: tangibles. You should shelter the majority of your assets in either productive rural farming or ranching land (that can double as a retreat), or in tangible, easily barterable assets that will hold their value. For the latter, I prefer practical tools, rather than baubles. You can't eat Krugerrands! In the real world, Beans, Bullets, and Band-aids are much more practical.
In the next few weeks, as the nascent wave of bank failures accelerates, you will likely be hearing a lot about the"Texas Ratio" of any given bank. This is the ratio of a bank's assets and reserves to its non-performing loans, based upon its financial data. Conduct due diligence on your bank, and cover your assets! It is best to have accounts with several institutions rather than just one.
Start your research by reading this article: Calculating Your Bank's Health. Also, don't miss this piece by Mish Shedlock. Based on Mish's warning, it is clear that you should not depend on Bankrate.com, since their evaluations are glaringly inaccurate. Instead, I recommended Weiss Ratings (now part of TheStreet.com) as a more objective judge of the the safety of banks and insurers. I have recommended Marty Weiss to my consulting clients for many years. Marty and his staff do excellent research and, unlike many of their competitors, they are truly independent and objective.
Letter Re: Advice on Food Storage and Preparation
Hi James:
Thanks for publishing my past essay and thanks again for what you do on your SurvivalBlog. Your web site and the consequent path I've traveled since I began reading here has put me in contact with many folks who are pursuing similar courses of action; to take personal action to be prepared, and when possible to discuss and work with others to secure a survivable future.
Please advise me on some of the best and up to date books you've found on food storage. Being new to this line of endeavor, I feel our family needs some better ideas on organizing food and storage methods.
My apologies if you've already covered this topic or already made such recommendations on your site. All Our Best, - Jon F. in New York
JWR Replies: Don't worry about redundancy, Joe. The importance of food storage cannot be overemphasized. Most of what you'll need to know about food storage is available in Alan T. Hagan's Food Storage FAQ, which available for free download. I may be biased, but I also recommend my own "Rawles Gets You Ready" preparedness course, available from Arbogast Publishing. It is geared toward stocking up with little more than what you can find at your local "Big Box" store or supermarket. It includes some extensive tables on the shelf lives of various foods.
One often overlooked aspect of food storage is how to cook and bake with the foods that you've stored. Three books on this subject that I strongly recommend buying are:
and,
Making the Best of Basics. OBTW, if you use this link to Lehmans.com, we will get a credit from Lehman's when you place an order for any of their products.
and,
The Encyclopedia of Country Living. (I've heard that the new 10th Edition of Carla Emery's book has just been released. Reader Jeff F., mentioned that his local Costco (in Woodinville,Washington) had the latest edition on sale for $17.99. (The list price $29.95). So check your local Costco.
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